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Thursday morning video forecast
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After an extended period of quiet weather, scattered showers and storms will enter the forecast the next few days. Over the weekend, storms will become even more likely, and the heavy rain threat will maximize.
Today & Tonight: Thursday is shaping up to be warm and humid as Gulf moisture increases across the area. Highs will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s, helping scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. Showers will be possible in the morning, with additional activity continuing through the afternoon. Not everyone will see rain, but roughly half of the area could get a passing storm at some point. Thursday night will be partly cloudy with temperatures falling to around 73°.
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Up Next: The weather pattern will become increasingly unsettled heading into the weekend as a frontal boundary moves closer to the area. Friday will feature another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, but rain chances will increase further on Saturday and Sunday. These storms will have plenty of moisture to work with, as atmospheric moisture levels climb near record territory for early October. As a result, periods of heavy rain will be possible during a busy weekend of outdoor activities and football games. The finer details on timing will become clearer soon, but these are the main things to know:
• Rain Coverage — Roughly half of the area could see a passing downpour on Friday, with several dry stretches mixed in. The weekend will not be a complete washout either, although breaks between storms may become shorter. Rain coverage increases to around 70% on both Saturday and Sunday. In other words, most locations will likely see rain at some point this weekend, though a few spots could stay dry on any individual day.
• Rain Totals & Impacts — A general 2-4” of rain appears reasonable from Thursday through Monday. Some locations could pick up more, especially where heavier storms repeatedly move over the same areas. A few storms may be capable of producing rainfall rates approaching 4” per hour. That kind of rainfall could quickly overwhelm drainage systems and ditches, causing water to collect on roadways and creating a flash flood risk in low-lying areas. The highest totals are more likely south and east of Baton Rouge, while areas farther northwest should generally stay closer to the lower end of the range. Beyond the heavy rain threat, thunderstorms could also cause disruptions to outdoor activities. Stay weather-aware and make sure you have a safe place to go if lightning approaches.
• Temperatures — Increased cloud cover and periods of rain will hold temperatures down this weekend, with afternoon highs mainly in the 80s. Overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s thanks to the continued humidity.
The unsettled pattern could continue into the beginning of next week as the front slows down or stalls, although the deepest moisture should gradually shift offshore. By the middle of next week, attention may turn to another cold front approaching the region. That system will be worth watching, as it could potentially bring the first significant cooldown of the season.
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The Tropics: No tropical development is expected across the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic over the next seven days.
— Balin
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