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Occasional thunderstorms remain in the Storm Station forecast as a disturbance meanders through the northern Gulf. That system might acquire tropical characteristics, but local impacts will stay minimal regardless of development.
Tonight & Tomorrow: Afternoon showers will diminish quickly into Sunday night, leaving only a few remaining clouds overnight. Expect morning lows to settle in the mid-70s. An offshore area of low pressure could send a spotty early-morning shower into southeast Louisiana, but the vast majority will begin the week on a dry note.
As temperatures rise, the coastal disturbance will pull tropical moisture into the area, setting the stage for scattered downpours to develop. Though short-lived, any storms will be efficient rainmakers. Roughly 50% of the region will experience a storm, with the highest concentration favored across southern areas. This forecast remains the same even if the coastal disturbance acquires tropical characteristics — see The Tropics section below. During sunnier periods, Monday will be plenty warm with highs reaching the low 90s. An easterly breeze will pick up too, blowing between 5 and 15 mph.
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Up Next: As the coastal disturbance aims for Texas on Tuesday, the Capital Area will be right in line to catch a rainband pulling into the system. This will bring another round of scattered afternoon downpours capable of heavy rain and frequent lightning. The first few days of September will bring a typical summer-like forecast with highs in the 90s and occasional afternoon thunderstorms. Any upticks in storm coverage will depend on the movement of additional disturbances, which will come in waves. As of now, the next disturbance is scheduled to approach late in the week, holding through the start of Labor Day Weekend.
The Tropics: An area of low pressure located about 100 miles off the southeast Louisiana coast continues to become better organized. Additional development is possible as the system drifts northwestward. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form before reaching the Upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coast by Tuesday night. There is now a high chance of development as of this writing. At this point, the Storm Station expects little to no tropical impacts for the Capital Area. However, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rain will be a possibility for areas between Houston and Lake Charles. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required as soon as Sunday night or Monday morning in these areas. The next name up is Edouard.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly continue west as a strong tropical wave. Confidence is increasing that the wave will eventually end up in the eastern Gulf toward next weekend. Overall tropical re-development odds are low as of now. Nevertheless, this system warrants a close watch given its trajectory. No local impacts are anticipated at this time.
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— Meteorologist Malcolm Byron
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