Tuesday PM Forecast: some dry time before the next storm system
A period of relatively quieter weather is expected in the wake of Tuesday morning thunderstorms. The next chance of rain will come with a cold front early Friday morning.
Next 24 Hours: The upper level disturbance associated with early morning thunderstorms will spin through the region overnight leading to a bit more cloud cover and even some spotty showers north of I-10. The atmosphere is cold enough that even though severe weather is not expected, some small hail pebbles could fall with any showers. Low temperatures will bottom out near 51 degrees. On Wednesday, morning clouds will give way to clearing skies in the afternoon. High temperatures will climb to near 72 degrees.
Up Next: Thursday will have partly sunny skies with low temperatures in the low 50s and high temperatures in the upper 70s. Another quick hitting storm system will deliver showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. For that system, a few more ingredients appear to be available for strong thunderstorms and, at this time, there is a 2/5 “slight risk” for severe weather. The primary threats appear to be gusty wind and hail. The associated cold front will quickly depart on Friday will clearing skies expected to end the week. Dry and seasonable weather is anticipated over the weekend. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.
After a round of early morning boomers, we look ahead to Thursday night and Friday morning where ingredients appear to be a bit more favorable for strong thunderstorms. The early outlook from @NWSSPC places the #BatonRouge Metro Area in a 2/5 "slight risk" for severe weather. pic.twitter.com/WrMi1VlJJ5— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) March 15, 2022
The Explanation: As an upper level trough of low pressure swings through the central Gulf Coast States tonight, there will be enough instability in the atmosphere for a few leftover showers. In fact, with very cold air aloft, some of the showers might be able to drop some hail pebbles as well. Overnight, increasingly dry air will make it tough for much more than some lingering clouds into Wednesday morning. The cold pool in the wake of this system is not substantial and temperatures will stay near average as a surface high-pressure system takes hold through Thursday. Then, another strong upper level trough of low pressure will move across the region Thursday night into Friday. Winds will shift back to the south increasing moisture into Thursday night sending dew point temperatures into the 60s. Instability will gradually build into Friday morning and there will be a short time where wind shear becomes strong enough to favor severe weather. Thunderstorms will organize in the increasingly favorable environment, developing discretely and along an eastward advancing cold front. At this time, the ingredients signal a threat for gusty wind and hail. The tornado threat is not zero. As that system exits to the northeast, clearing skies are expected later Friday into the weekend. That front is expected to stall in the northern Gulf of Mexico, but with a lack of upper level moisture, dry conditions should continue Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will stay near average through the weekend.
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