A few showers and thunderstorms will be around each day through the weekend, with some days slightly busier than others. In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. We first broke that weather news on wbrz.com via the WBRZ WX App. and WBRZ News App at 3:30pm Thursday.

First @NHC_Atlantic track on P.T.C. One zips the system across Florida (likely as T.S. #Alex) over the weekend. There will be no impact to the #BatonRouge area. pic.twitter.com/X0QvRlByJh

— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) June 2, 2022

Next 24 Hours: A weakening cold front will crawl into the region tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. As daytime warmth will be at least partially responsible for the activity, precipitation will taper after midnight. Low temperatures will slip into the low 70s. The remnants of the cold front will still be over the region on Friday, albeit with a slightly drier air mass in place. Only stray showers and thunderstorms will be able to pop in otherwise partly sunny skies. High temperatures will top out in the low 90s.       

Up Next: The front will diminish by Saturday but enough moisture and instability via daytime warming is expected to stay in place for isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A weak, upper level disturbance will fuel additional activity on Sunday. For the weekend, temperatures will be typical of the time of year with highs in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s. Early next week, the upper level pattern may change just enough to reduce the afternoon activity and make showers very scarce. However, the tradeoff to drier afternoons in June is much higher heat, and some thermometers could top out in the mid 90s Monday through Wednesday. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: Despite strong upper-level winds, P.T.C. One may eventually strengthen into Tropical Storm Alex while it moves slowly northeastward over southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.

The Explanation: An upper level trough of low pressure will slowly move across the region through the end of the workweek dragging a weakening cold front to the central Gulf Coast with it. While deeper moisture may diminish over the coming days, this will be overcome by lift created by the axis of the upper level trough and front. With daytime warming, showers and thunderstorms will be able to pop. Actually, the lacking moisture in the mid-levels could serve to cause some storms to produce gusty winds via downbursts. By the weekend, zonal (west to east) wind flow aloft will be in place with a typical summertime pattern expected. So, as high temperatures reach the low 90s, a few midday to early evening showers or thunderstorms will be possible. Next week, a weak upper level ridge will attempt to extend over the Southern U.S. and tamp down the precipitation. Should that occur, we can expect more daytime warming and with a general sinking motion in the atmosphere--some warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 90s.

--Josh

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