Widespread rain will end Thursday morning and take a break for several days. Temperatures will only spend about 24 hours near average before rebounding.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A slow moving cold front is barely through the local area despite entering almost 24 hours ago. Therefore, showers will linger through part of the morning. Clouds are expected to dominate skies through the daylight hours. Thermometers will crash as the front moves farther east, with morning readings falling out of the 50s and into the 40s by dusk. Clearing skies overnight will guide lows into the mid 30s.

Weather Recap: Wednesday’s storm system played out largely as expected. Strong thunderstorms kicked into gear during the afternoon hours. There was a slight lull in the evening followed by rounds of heavy rain overnight. Amounts ranged from 1 to 4 inches around the region, with the heaviest totals on a narrow axis from Plaquemine through Baton Rouge into McComb. Many of the severe weather reports fell within the Storm Prediction Center outlooks areas—the tornado and wind damage events were close to the “enhanced risk” area in Mississippi. The only surprise was that the Baton Rouge area had several hail events and this was considered unlikely going into the day due to a warmer atmosphere aloft. Fortunately, none of the hail caused damage as it was very small and below the 1 inch criteria to be deemed severe.  

Up Next: Friday will be sunny and seasonable. A weak front may cause some passing clouds or a stray shower Saturday evening, but this will be a low impact event. At least partial clearing is expected Sunday with mild high temperatures in the low 70s. Another frontal system is expected to stall over the region early next week leading to a prolonged stretch of scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, those rounds do not look severe.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level trough remains over Texas early Thursday. With southwest flow  aloft, showers will persist through daybreak with clouds well into the afternoon. Persistent low clouds and falling temperatures will make for an uncomfortable day. Morning thermometers in the upper 50s and low 60s, will end up in the 40s by late afternoon. With clearing skies and falling dew points, overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 30s by Friday morning. One or two typical cool spots could nip the freezing mark. After a sunny day, low level moisture will return to the area Friday night and the resulting higher dew points will keep low temperatures near seasonal averages in the 40s. A weakening front will die over the area on Saturday evening and could stir up some clouds or perhaps an isolated shower. A west to east moving (zonal) jet stream will take shape for the first half of next week. This will return our region to the active pattern that was experienced two to three weeks ago. Several disturbances will move through the jet stream to increase rain chances. The first of these is pegged for Monday. Forecast models do suggest a front will come into the region but because there is no real northerly push in winds, the front may stall in the region and become a focal point for showers Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Depending on the available moisture in the atmosphere, which is a bit too far out to determine, this scenario needs to be monitored for heavy rain.

--Josh

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