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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Rain, gusty storms set to race through the region

1 year 6 months 3 weeks ago Friday, January 18 2019 Jan 18, 2019 January 18, 2019 6:17 AM January 18, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Friday will be a tease of milder temperatures prior to a sharp chill over the weekend. Some storms will lead the cold air into town.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Beyond morning fog, Friday will be mostly cloudy with only an isolated light shower possible. Most should stay dry. Thermometers will push 70 degrees due to south winds of 5-10mph. Overnight, clouds will thicken and give way to showers and thunderstorms near daybreak.   

Up Next: A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms on Saturday morning. There is an outside shot at a severe thunderstorm or two with damaging wind gusts. The front is expected to move quickly, with clearing skies and rapidly falling temperatures into the afternoon. Expect the breeze to pick up too, out of the northwest at 15mph. Temperatures will plummet into the 30s by Sunday morning and 20s by Monday morning. There will be a brief spell of near normal temperatures before a mid-week cold front send numbers down again. The signal is for that cool spell to last quite a while.  


Louisiana Marathon: Weather will be cooperative for The Expo on Friday. On Saturday, the Quarter and 5K could meet some issues in the face of a strong cold front timed for the morning hours. Gusty thunderstorms and heavy rain could create problems in the morning, the second half of the day should bring much safer weather with returning sunshine and breezy conditions. Marathon and half runners will look to P.R. in clear, cool conditions on Sunday morning.


THE EXPLANATION:

Into the weekend and next week, the pattern will stay fairly active. The focuses will be any stronger storms with a frontal passage on Saturday and much colder air that will follow. As far as the storms go, this particular setup is one of our typical low instability, high shear situations. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of the forecast area in a 1 out of 5 “marginal risk” and northeastern sections in a 2 out of 5 “slight risk” for severe weather on Saturday as the cold front moves through.

Models are in good agreement timing the heaviest rainfall for around daybreak Saturday, then ending by midday. Overall, this threat does not appear to be major, but at least a small threat of severe weather is there. Gusty wind appears to be the main threat if any storms turn severe. After the front, arctic cold air advection will take shape and continue through Sunday. The cold blast will be short lived as thermometers will quickly rebound on Monday. Sunday night into Monday will be the coldest period with most locations reaching freezing north of I-10. Some 20s are anticipated into southwest Mississippi. A surface high will shift east allowing southerly winds and moisture to return to the area ahead of the next storm system by the middle of next week. Ensemble model guidance points to temperatures staying below average through next weekend. Highs may stay in the 50s with lows in the 30s.  

--Dr. Josh

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