Chilly days ahead, monitoring wintry mix possibility Sunday night
Now that a round of showers and thunderstorms is behind us, attention turns to a rather cool forecast. Several freezes and even a light wintry mix are possible through the weekend.
The Next 24 Hours: Clouds will be stubborn to break on a chilly night in the Capital Area. Expect low temperatures to stop in the upper 30s for most as winds remain elevated, out of the north at 10-20mph. Satellite points to some clearing to the west, but that may take some time to occur in our area on Friday. Eventually, a little late day sun will try to send thermometers just above 50 degrees.
After That: The weekend will begin on a tranquil and cold note with Saturday morning temperatures checking in around freezing. Winds will slacken and the afternoon will feature sunshine as temperatures struggle to leave the low 50s. Yet another freeze is then possible on Sunday morning. The part of the forecast everybody wants to know about is Sunday and Monday. Actually, partly sunny skies and cool temperatures should prevail for most of Sunday. By nighttime, a fast moving disturbance will spread clouds and showers into the region. Between midnight and dawn Monday, the atmosphere may become just cold enough north of I-12 that some snowflakes and ice pellets can mix in with rain drops. However, the ground will remain above freezing so slick surfaces and accumulation are unlikely. Additionally, overall precipitation amounts will be light. As temperatures warm back through the 30s into the low 40s, clouds and some light rain showers may linger on a chilly, gloomy Monday. CLICK HERE to view your complete 7-Day Forecast.
A look at the *probability* of accumulating frozen precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning. Low probability does not mean no probability. Some flakes and sleet pellets may mix in with rain north of I-12, but will not create any issues. *all subject to change! #LaWX #MsWX pic.twitter.com/FVFYWLbcjw— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) January 7, 2021
The Explanation: Conditions will be blustery and overcast through most of Friday and then will begin to clear out going into the weekend. A surface high pressure will build over the area along with a strong upper level low which will allow colder temperatures and drier conditions to hold. Moving into Sunday, a fast moving, but vigorous upper level disturbance will approach from the west. Initially, high clouds will overspread the region from west to east. Through Sunday evening, clouds will lower and thicken as the atmosphere saturates. This disturbance will spawn a surface low pressure system over the northwest Gulf which will advance east-northeast across south Louisiana on Sunday night. Precipitation will begin as rain showers but forecast models indicate that the atmosphere may cool just enough north of I-12 for rain to mix with snow and sleet between midnight and dawn Monday morning. Surface temperatures will barely make it down to freezing in the Baton Rouge area, therefore any accumulations or impacts are not expected. It is possible that for a brief time counties in southwest Mississippi reach freezing leading to an isolated slick spot in rural, elevated areas. Thermometers will quickly recover to the upper 30s with solar insolation on Monday morning, so there is really minimal time for any significant issues to occur. Beyond that, drier air will start to move in and wintry precipitation will end. Temperatures are expected to rise back into the upper 40s thus transitioning any lingering precipitation back to rain through late Monday morning. Dry air will further advance across the region with calm, clear, chilly conditions through at least next Thursday.
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