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Tuesday morning video forecast
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A frontal system will cause unsettled weather through at least the first half of Halloween. A sharp drop in temperatures will follow the cold front on Thursday with the coolest air of the young fall season anticipated.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: A warm front will lift north through the Gulf of Mexico and bring a slug of tropical moisture with it. As a result, clouds will return and even a few showers are expected to develop. By no means will Tuesday be a washout, some spots could even miss rain. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s. The warm front will act on the area overnight with scattered showers and low temperatures in the upper 60s.
Up Next: The next cold front will bring an increase of rain and thunderstorm activity late Wednesday through early Thursday. Right now, it looks like precipitation will end just in time for trick-or-treaters. Highs will come early in the day with temperatures plummeting behind the front, into the mid 50s by sunset.
The coolest temperatures so far this fall season will follow. Friday morning will begin in the low 40s with some isolated pockets in the upper 30s possible. Friday through Sunday will be clear with highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.
The Tropics: A non-tropical low in the north Atlantic is given a 30 percent chance of becoming a subtropical storm Tuesday or Wednesday. Environmental conditions will gradually become more unfavorable by the end of the week.
THE EXPLANATION:
On Tuesday, an upper level ridge centered near the Bahamas will shift west. This will steer a weak tropical wave into the southern Gulf of Mexico and then north towards the central Gulf Coast. The ECMWF model suggests rain associated will expand across the entire area while the GFS model keeps it all offshore. Combining those two ideas, our team is forecasting isolated to scattered showers across the area Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday. In addition, it will be breezy along the coast as the local pressure gradient tightens. This may cause higher than usual tides and the National Weather Service may need to issue a coastal flood advisory. Wednesday and Thursday look to be the most unsettled days of this week. An upper level trough will drive a cold front across the Mississippi River Valley, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts are expected to be in the 1 to 2 inch range however, any downpours could cause some isolated higher totals. A strong surface high pressure system will push into the region behind the front delivering the coldest air of the young fall season. By Friday morning, temperatures should be bottoming out in the 40s for much of the area and even some upper 30s will be possible for a few spots in southwest Mississippi. Daytime highs Friday afternoon will struggle to top 60 degrees. Similar temperatures will last through the weekend with mainly clear skies.
--Josh
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