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Tuesday morning video forecast

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A cold front will move through tonight and because it is spring, we will need to say alert for any stronger thunderstorms. Cool, quiet weather will follow for a short time.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: After a high temperature in the mid 80s, Tuesday will be setting the stage for an overnight cold front that could produce a strong thunderstorm or two. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has posted a 2 out of 5 “slight risk” for severe weather.

Action will arrive around midnight and it is on the leading edge of the squall line that storms will have the best chance to produce gusty wind. Other threats such as hail and tornadoes are not impossible, but unlikely. The front will be a quick mover so rain totals will likely be less than one inch. In preparation for active weather, you might consider tying down any loose objects outside, just in case. As always, The WBRZ Weather Team is here for you, on every platform. For weather alerts, use the free WBRZ WX App. on Apple and Android devices and follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates. Your latest forecast will be on News 2 and wbrz.com.

Up Next: The cold front will clear out rain and temperatures will drop quickly with cool and quiet weather slated for at least two days. Thursday morning will bring a chilly start with low temperatures in the mid 40s. As the pattern speeds up and gets more active, more showers and storms could return as soon as Friday. A slow moving front will help trigger this activity followed by a lull Sunday before the next cold front arrives early next week.

THE EXPLANATION:

Unseasonably high temperatures and dew points will continue through Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The boundary will be guided into the region by a shortwave trough moving a little closer to the forecast area resulting in a “slight risk” for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. As a squall line of showers and thunderstorms arrives around midnight, the main severe weather threat will be gusty wind. The front itself will be moving quite fast at 35mph, so any additional thunderstorm downdrafts that can combine with the linear speed of the storms could create severe wind gusts. As usual with a nocturnal storm threat, instability may be a limiting factor and wind shear is not too impressive. Hail and tornadoes cannot be eliminated as a possibility but the chances seem quite low.  Temperatures will cool quickly behind the front and this will be noticed into Wednesday. The daily high registered for Wednesday could occur just after midnight before the front arrives. Thermometers behind the boundary will struggle to reach the 70s on Wednesday afternoon due to northwest winds bringing cold air advection. The pattern will begin to get more active and progressive later this week into next week. Yet another cold front will stall in the Gulf by this weekend providing a focal point for showers and thunderstorms to develop. This part of the forecast is low confidence as it is unclear as to when the next front comes to flush out the unsettled weather. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, stay in touch with us as details become more clear.      

 --Dr. Josh

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