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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Thursday morning video forecast

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Another cold front will bring showers to the area tonight. Temperatures will be cooler on the other side of the front. Returning rain then may challenge some carnival season events.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: How about some 70s? It may not look pretty with mainly cloudy skies, but a solid warmup with temperatures about 8 degrees above average is expected for Thursday. A cold front will approach the area late and bring a few showers to the area. As it looks right now, a lot of that activity should occur after dusk and it is possible some locations even miss the rain. Lows will be in the upper 40s.

Up Next: For Groundhog Day, showers will end early followed by clearing skies. Temperatures will be back below average. Meanwhile, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, mostly cloudy skies are forecast in the morning, increasing the likelihood that Phil will not see his shadow. Could that mean early spring? Historically, the rodent is only about 35 to 40 percent accurate. Some more clarity is coming to the weekend forecast. There will certainly be a period of showers thanks to another cold front. We are beginning to hone in on a late Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon window for rain chances. For the Baton Rouge area Mardi Gras events on Saturday, earlier parades stand a better chance of dodging showers. At this time, amounts look as though they will be much lower than last weekend. Overall, it will be a gray weekend with highs near 60. Cooler air will follow into early next week with yet another front pegged for Wednesday.

THE EXPLANATION:

The next trough will dive across the lower 48 into Thursday sending another cold front toward the central Gulf Coast. Moisture profiles and lift look limited at best and the front may only have a broken line of showers leading it into the region. At this time, measurable rain is only forecast for 30-40 percent of the area and timing appears to be overnight Thursday into Friday. The trough basin will be just northeast of the region so seasonably chilly temperatures will be in place through Saturday morning. A second trough will push into the region over the weekend and the basin of this one figures to dig deeper into the Mid-South. Ahead of this feature, Pacific moisture will be drawn into the region promoting ample cloud cover Saturday. Numerous showers will develop as the trough pushes over the central Gulf Coast. Onset of rain is still a tricky aspect of the forecast but models are highlighting precipitation between 18z and 0z meaning that Saturday afternoon seems like a reasonable estimate, especially for areas west of the Mississippi River. The cold front is expected to move through around noon on Sunday with cooler temperatures to follow early next week.  

--Dr. Josh

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