February 2023 will go out on a warm note, but cooler temperatures early in the month keep it from being one of the top ten warmest on record. A front will drop temperatures a bit later this week.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Clear skies will give way to increasing low clouds and patchy fog overnight and low temperatures back into the upper 60s. Shortly after sunrise on Wednesday, warming temperatures will quickly mix out fog and low clouds to a partly sunny sky. Afternoon high temperatures will chug into the mid 80s. The record high to watch is 86 degrees at Metro Airport, previously set in 2017.      

Up Next: Thursday will continue the warm pattern with lows in the low 70s and highs in the upper 80s. The afternoon should remain partly sunny, though clouds may start to increase late as a cold front approaches from the west. A line of rain and thunderstorms is anticipated between 12am and 7am Friday morning. The best ingredients for severe weather will stay north and west of the Capital Area, but the chance for one or two warnings locally is not zero. On the other side of the front, skies will clear for the weekend with a three day stretch of dry and pleasant weather. Friday through Sunday expect lows near 50 and highs near 75. Thermometers will start to climb again early next week.  

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Detailed Forecast: A front will continue to weaken across the area through tonight. While there is some drier air north of the highways, winds will turn back to the south overnight and moisture will invader again. Low clouds and patchy fog will be possible into daybreak but with solar insolation quickly warming temperatures way from the dew points, expect to see both mix out quickly and another day of above average temperatures. Going into Thursday, attention turns to the west as a strong upper level trough of low pressure closes off over the Four Corners region and begins to move eastward into the plains. Out ahead of this feature, our upper pattern begins to transition to a moist, southwesterly flow. At the surface, a deepening low pressure is forecast to move quickly from the Plains into the Ozarks Thursday night and into Friday morning. The proximity of this low will result in plenty of directional shear out ahead within the moisture rich warm sector. During the day on Thursday and into the overnight, instability will be available. However, within the finer details there reside several limiting factors to severe weather for our region.

First, with the time day, a loss of warming overnight will cause some stabilization. Second, as the upper level trough rockets north and east, so does the best lift. Therefore, the loss of instability and exiting lift may cause a bit of a failure mode locally. The event should not be written off though, the cold front itself should be able to produce enough forcing for a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms to come through the area early Friday morning. Enough wind shear will be present to produce an isolated strong to severe thunderstorms--especially north of the interstates. Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions will move into the region on Friday and into the start of the weekend. Winds will be gusty just prior to and after the frontal passage with some gusts nearing advisory criteria. The air mass is mostly Pacific in nature so no extreme cool down...in fact it appears that temperatures will remain around average. Going into the weekend and beyond, the normal temperatures will not last long as the upper levels warm once again resulting in above average temperatures early next week.

--Josh

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