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To the end of April

8 months 3 weeks 2 days ago April 25, 2016 Apr 25, 2016 Monday, April 25 2016 April 25, 2016 5:49 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The week ahead will bring weather becoming of spring with sunshine, the daily chance for a pop-up shower and temperatures around 5 degrees above average.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Monday will bring more clouds than noticed over the weekend. Highs will make it into the middle 80s. During the late morning and early afternoon hours, isolated showers and thunderstorms may spark off, with about 20% coverage in measurable rain across the forecast area. Overnight will be partly cloudy with a low in the mid 60s.

Up Next: Tuesday through Thursday bring similar weather. Mornings will begin in the upper 60s, followed by partly sunny skies as high temperatures run for the middle 80s. Winds will be light and southerly. The afternoon hours will offer isolated showers and thunderstorms, with measurable rain coverage in the 20-30% range around the forecast area, but certainly no daylong washouts.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The westward and eastward variations in position of an upper level ridge will dictate the weather pattern for the upcoming week. For Monday, the ridge axis will slide eastward allowing the atmosphere to unlid somewhat as an upper level trough kicks through the northern tier of the nation with a mid-level trough moving across the Gulf. Due to this, some increased uplift may be available for the development of a few showers and thunderstorms. Some moisture should be available as return flow from the Gulf of Mexico has been able to reestablish over the weekend. However, because a pocket of dry air aloft lies just to the west and is reaching eastward, the window of opportunity for showers should shut down by mid-afternoon. The ridge will move back over the forecast area for Tuesday before another pair of shortwave troughs to the north bumps it to the Southeast U.S. for Wednesday and Thursday. Generally speaking, afternoon convection should be isolated to scattered with the best chance coming north of I-12. Due to the ridge and southerly flow, temperatures will be above average through the week.

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