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Third straight Heat Advisory, slimmer shower chances

1 year 2 weeks 6 days ago Thursday, July 07 2016 Jul 7, 2016 July 07, 2016 5:51 AM July 07, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Despite a shower dropping the afternoon temperature to 79 degrees, Wednesday marked the second straight day with a record maximum low temperature. As of Thursday Morning, the temperature had not dipped below 79 degrees likely marking a third consecutive record—unless an afternoon shower can send thermometers below 77 degrees.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Another steamy afternoon is ahead, with high humidity creating “feels-like” temperatures over 105 degrees. A HEAT ADVISORY is once again in effect. Drink more water than you usually would and try to minimize time in direct sun. Check the backseat of your car for kiddos and keep an eye on the elderly—especially those without access to air conditioning. If work requires you to be outside, take frequent breaks. Skies will be mostly sunny and the lowest rain coverage of the week is expected—only 10-20 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area will get a cooling afternoon shower. The overnight stickiness will continue as well with lows struggling to leave the 80s.   

Up Next: Similar weather is expected for Friday and Saturday with the only forecast tweak coming to expected rain coverage—bumped slightly into the 20-30 percent range. By Sunday and Monday, it appears as though the pattern will allow a bit more widespread and shower and thunderstorm coverage with earlier development as well. This should stop high temperatures a little closer to average in the low 90s. Unfortunately, the very warm nights will persist.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The axis of a broad southern tier ridge is stretching overhead today bringing the bleakest outlook for cooling showers this week. High heat will continue to grab weather headlines into the weekend with highs peaking in the mid 90s and very high dew points keeping lows around 80 degrees. The oppressive humidity will also produce high heat indices and for that reason, heat advisories may be re-upped each day. By Sunday, a little troughiness in between two 594dm ridges may provide the additional instability needed for increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Forecast models agree on this feature persisting into early next week. For that reason, the area can expect rain coverage on the order of 30-40 percent and likely lower high temperatures as well, closer to normal, in the low 90s. Because dew points will stay in the mid to upper 70s, overnight lows will not stray far from the upper 70s though and heat indices will exceed 100 degrees in locations that don’t receive rain.       

 --Josh

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