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Stormy days ahead, area to watch in the Gulf

1 year 1 month 3 weeks ago Thursday, June 02 2016 Jun 2, 2016 June 02, 2016 6:16 AM June 02, 2016 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

An unsettled pattern is expected to begin unfolding today and carry through the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday will mark the transition into a more active pattern. High temperatures in the middle 80s should be achieved early before the development of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon hours. Rain could impact the afternoon and evening commute home. As far as chances, or coverage, go, scattered action is slated for today, with 50% or more of the forecast area expected to pick up rain. Showers will taper during the evening hours with overnight lows not escaping the low 70s.

Up Next: Friday through Sunday will be mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon hours. Due to increased clouds and times of rain, highs likely won’t go beyond the mid to upper 80s. The NCAA Regional Baseball tournament at Alex Box Stadium will have difficulty going on without interruptions. The first LSU game, scheduled for 2pm Friday, is looking stormy. Outdoor plans this weekend will want to check in with the forecast frequently for updates and have the WBRZ WX App. handy for live radar and alerts! 

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a region in the Southern Gulf of Mexico for potential activity next week. A surface low may form near Cancun before moving to the northeast. At this time, there is a 30% chance of further development. It is important to note that even ***IF*** there is development, the pattern into late next week shows a cold front and high pressure system sinking into the Southeast U.S., which would deflect such a system away from Louisiana.  

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough will move into Texas on Thursday and slowly spin eastward through Saturday. On the active eastern side of this trough, the local area can expect to see enhanced shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours. Daytime heating and marine breezes will be factors in generating rounds of rain and storms as well and therefore the afternoons will feature most of the action. A weak stationary front will also settle over the area providing an additional focus for development. All in all, some wet days are ahead and many locations will pick up an inch or two of rain with higher amounts beneath thunderstorm downpours. Increased moisture in the atmosphere will lead to a lot of lightning in the deeper storms. Fortunately, no organized severe weather is expected, but we know that these moisture laden storms can still be attention getting with downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning and even downburst wind gusts. By Sunday, a northern stream trough will nudge southeastward into the Eastern United States and this should help to bump the surface trough southeastward. Likely cut off from the flow at that point, the upper trough will eventually weaken and become absorbed by the jet stream. Quieter, more typical weather is then expected by the middle of next week.         

--Josh

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