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Still and sticky

6 months 3 weeks 3 days ago May 11, 2016 May 11, 2016 Wednesday, May 11 2016 May 11, 2016 5:47 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

A repetitive forecast is up through Thursday, until a cold front arrives with some changes for the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Partly sunny skies will help high temperatures into the upper 80s. Continued humidity will make it a sweaty afternoon for outdoor activity. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10mph. Once again, rain chances stay very low. The nighttime hours will be quiet with lows stopping around 70 degrees. 

Up Next: Thursday will continue a similar weather pattern with a partly sunny afternoon bringing high temperatures into the upper 80s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop ahead of an approaching cold front, but more widespread activity will hold off until overnight and into Friday. As the week closes, action will pick up a bit in response to a crossing front which will clear the region by Saturday to set up a mostly clear, warm and less humid weekend.         

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  A fairly zonal sub-tropical jet stream will maintain a status quo weather pattern through Thursday. By that time, a shortwave trough moving across the Midwest will guide a surface low pressure toward the Great Lakes with an associated cold front draped southwestward. That front is expected to enter the local region on Friday where there will be an established warm and moist environment. Frontal lift should be sufficient to trigger showers and thunderstorms, though at this time, lapse rates and wind fields do not look impressive enough for there to be concern about widespread severe weather. The front will kick through by the weekend leaving behind a brief turnaround to northerly surface winds and thus some drier air. Both Saturday and Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies with afternoon highs in near normal readings in the mid 80s. Forecast models are in some disagreement over timing and strength but seem to come together on the idea of a shortwave, or vorticity maxima, traversing the Mid-South on Monday with widespread area of rain and thunderstorms.         

--Josh

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