With Thursday Morning temperatures bottoming out in the low 70s, Baton Rouge thermometers have now been at or above 70 degrees for 99 straight days—marking a new record. At 69 degrees, June 8 was the last date recording a low temperature below 70. The previous record streak dated back to the summer of 1977. Temperature data at Metro Airport in Baton Rouge began in 1930. There are a few other stations around the Baton Rouge area with varying streaks at or above 70 degrees. This new record stretch will likely continue with lows pegged for the 70s through Sunday.   

It is now looking as though a wetter pattern will take shape for the weekend. College football fans in Baton Rouge will want to stay in touch with the forecast!

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday won't be much different than Wednesday. Expect partly sunny skies early followed by isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The farther south you are of Baton Rouge, the better chance at receiving some rain. High temperatures will top out in the low 90s. As per usual, showers will diminish at night leaving mostly clear skies and lows in the low 70s.

Up Next: Shower and storm action will begin to ramp up Friday and into the weekend. With highs near 90 and lows in the low 70s, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday and linger into the early evening hours. Those heading out to LSU and Southern for tailgating and the games should monitor the forecast and have am indoor option nearby in the event of lightning.

The Tropics: Julia has now been downgraded to a tropical depression but continues to produce rain, wind and surf from Northern Florida to North Carolina. Unfortunately, this system is not expected to move much over the next two days. Tropical Storm Ian is churning haplessly in the Central Atlantic and will continue out to sea with little fanfare. Tropical Depression 12 is moving westward across the Southern Atlantic and encountering very harsh conditions for further development. At this time, no systems pose a threat to Louisiana.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  Through Thursday, weak ridging will generally keep convective showers and thunderstorms in the isolated category. By Friday, the ridge will slide just far enough to the east that coincident with a Northwest U.S. trough, southwesterly flow will return ample moisture to the troposphere. On the western periphery of the ridge, ripples of vorticity will occasionally squirm through the region enhancing shower and thunderstorm development. Aided by daytime heating, scattered activity is expected Friday through Sunday with rain coverage in the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area in the 40-60% range. With football season underway, those venturing outdoors should keep in mind that an indoor option is the safest shelter from lightning. Temperatures will be close to average with some highs potentially busting shy of 90 degrees depending on where the earliest showers flare up. By next week, models diverge in solutions. The ECMWF shows the ridge retreating westward and returning the area to a typical hot, humid, isolated afternoon showers type of pattern. The GFS and GEM suggest a weak front reaches the area by Tuesday, potentially increasing showers and thunderstorms for a brief period, but also knocking back the humidity a touch. Obviously, the trade off in that second scenario sounds a whole lot better!  

You can stay in touch with Meteorologist Josh Eachus on FACEBOOK and TWITTER.