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Heat before bubblers

6 months 1 week 6 days ago July 12, 2016 Jul 12, 2016 Tuesday, July 12 2016 July 12, 2016 5:35 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Showers and thunderstorms performed as expected on Monday with 50 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County forecasting area collecting rain from late morning to late afternoon. Most of that action occurred south of I-12 and that should again be the case today.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday brings more early steam followed by more afternoon shower and storm activity. Highs will make it into the low 90s before any of the bubblers start producing rain and cooling temperatures. Overnight will be partly cloudy and muggy with lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next:  Expect late morning to late afternoon showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Daily rain coverage will be in the 40 percent range. Aside from any pop-up activity, skies will be partly sunny with high temperatures getting into the low 90s. Nights will be quieter with partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 70s. There are signs that another stretch of high heat is in store for next week.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The pattern will not change much this week. There are persistent upper level ridges in the Southwestern United States and off of the East Coast. In between these two features, a slight weakness or trough will maintain just enough instability for diurnal heating and marine breezes to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Each day, timing should be along the coast early and inland by late morning and early afternoon. All action will tend to fizzle by evening. Of course, the more numerous showers and thunderstorms will help to limit temperatures somewhat, but a pretty steamy feel will continue as we expect this time of year. By next weekend, forecast models suggest that the western ridge should begin to protrude eastward towards the Gulf Coast. If this verifies, convection will begin to get capped off. In addition, another stretch of high heat would be the result. We’ll monitor temperature trends closely for what could be another brutal round of hot weather.   

 --Josh

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