Clear, cool conditions will prevail with frosty mornings through Thursday. The next storm system could bring a considerable amount of rain into the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Your Wednesday will be welcomed by more sunshine. After a cool start, temperatures will again stop in the mid to upper 50s with northeast winds of 5-10mph. Skies are expected to stay clear through the night with thermometers in the mid to upper 30s leading to some patchy frost.    

Up Next: Warming will then begin on Thursday afternoon, as cloud cover slowly increases ahead of an approaching storm system. An area of low pressure will develop the in western Gulf of Mexico on Friday sending a significant amount of moisture to the central Gulf Coast. Two to three inches of rain could fall through Saturday night. High temperatures may briefly break into the 60s during this time, but dry and chilly conditions will return on Sunday behind a cold front.

THE EXPLANATION:

Expect temperatures of 10-15 degrees below normal through Thursday morning. High pressure will build into the south through midweek, moving across Louisiana on Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be the coldest with some isolated freezes possible in typical cool spots north of I-12. Forecast models are in good agreement regarding the next impact weather system expected to arrive at the end of the week. A shortwave trough will cut across the southern third of the United States and cause a surface low pressure system to generate across the Southwest U.S. on Friday. Forecast models remain in good agreement that the low will track east, northeastward across Texas and the Gulf Coast with widespread heavy rain Friday night into Saturday. Fortunately, this will be a fast moving system, which will limit total rainfall amounts, but strong forcing created by the low, ample divergence aloft, and very high atmospheric moisture content will lead to two or possibly three inches of rain in many locations. Additionally, forecast models continue to keep instability confined to coastal areas.

There will be some severe thunderstorm potential in those areas with just a few rumbles of thunder further inland. A slight shift inland by the surface low could bring the threat of severe thunderstorms farther north towards the I-10 corridor. Much cooler than average temperatures will return for the first part of next week.         

--Dr. Josh

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