Catching a break
The first round and first inch of rain for the week will taper through Tuesday.
Today and Tonight: Tuesday will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours—especially for areas south of I-12. While isolated showers may linger into the afternoon, there will also be room for some breaks of sunshine. Highs temperatures will run into the low 80s with light easterly winds. A drier trend into the evening should allow a full baseball game at Alex Box Stadium. Overnight, some clouds will linger with low temperatures in the upper 60s.
Up Next: Wednesday through Friday, a front will stall out over Louisiana and a very wet, repetitive pattern will commence. Rounds of rain and storms are forecast, especially each afternoon. By the end of the week, the area could collect a rain total of 3-5”. As far as temperatures go, highs will be in the low 80s with lows near 70 degrees.
Forecast Discussion: As a weak wave of low pressure along the Louisiana Coast begins to push eastward, a pocket of dry air aloft will slide across the forecast area on Tuesday, bringing an end to morning showers and thunderstorms. A dry period is anticipated into Early Wednesday before the next wave of upper energy and a surface front return to the region. Into Wednesday Afternoon, a cold front will move into the region, stalling in Louisiana through Friday as precipitable water values will increase and be 150-200% of normal. This will mean that any storms during the second half of the week will be very efficient rain makers and thus, the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting 3-5” across the region by the end of the week. Rounds of rain and thunderstorms will be pinned down more precisely within 24-36 hours of a given forecast period however there are some early insights right now. Areas of maximized positive vorticity advection (upper level energy) and omega (uplift) are shown Thursday Afternoon and again through much of Friday. Instability will be high enough that severe weather may have to be considered in upcoming forecasts, however upper wind fields may be somewhat limiting. The stalled front should get a boot through by the weekend allowing showers and thunderstorms to gradually break away. A ridge will move overhead on Sunday leading to drier and warmer conditions.
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