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Carnival season in full swing, so too is an active weather pattern

6 months 1 week 3 days ago Friday, February 02 2018 Feb 2, 2018 February 02, 2018 5:48 AM February 02, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The quiet weather will last all of 24 hours as rain returns this weekend. That will come due to the second in a series of three cold fronts in a week’s time. Meanwhile, Punxsutawney Phil has prognosticated more winter. Read about that prediction, and what our weather team has to say about it, right here.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: For Groundhog Day, showers will end early followed by clearing skies. Thermometers will be back below average barely climbing away from the morning temperature and into the upper 50s. Overnight, low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s with mostly clear skies early and some returning clouds late. 


BATON ROUGE AREA PARADE SCHEDULE, WEATHER FORECAST:

Friday, 6pm – Krewe of Artemis: Mostly clear, 50°

Saturday, 12pm – Krewe of Diversion: Cloudy, 54°, 10 percent chance of showers

Saturday, 2pm – Krewe Mystique de la Capitale: Cloudy, 57°, 20 percent chance of showers

Saturday, 6pm – Krewe of Orion: Cloudy, 56°, 40 percent chance of showers

Sunday, 1pm – Mid-City Gras: Cloudy, 64°, 20 percent chance of showers


Up Next: Saturday will be mostly cloudy and cool with highs in the upper 50s. A period of showers is expected thanks to another cold front. Saturday afternoon seems like the arrival time of any rain and therefore outdoor events stand a better chance of staying dry the earlier in the day that they are scheduled. Showers will continue overnight and into Sunday, possibly ending by midday. At this time, amounts look as though they will be much lower than last weekend. Monday will be briefly cooler and dry before yet another cold front brings rain and possibly thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level trough basin will be just northeast of the region on Friday so seasonably chilly temperatures will be in place through Saturday morning. A second trough will push into the region over the weekend and the basin of this one figures to dig deeper into the Mid-South. Ahead of this feature, Pacific moisture will be drawn into the region promoting ample cloud cover Saturday. Numerous showers will develop as the trough pushes over the central Gulf Coast. Onset of rain is still a tricky aspect of the forecast but models are highlighting precipitation between 18z and 0z meaning that Saturday afternoon seems like a reasonable estimate, especially for areas west of the Mississippi River. The cold front is expected to move through around noon on Sunday with cooler temperatures to follow early next week. A progressive pattern will continue however and the third cold front in a week’s time will move into the region on Tuesday afternoon. With this cold front, the forecast models are a little bit more aggressive with rainfall bringing a half inch to possible an inch through Wednesday. It is worth noting there tends to be a heavier bias on precipitation amounts farther out in range though. On the other side of that front, temperatures look like they could drop 5 to 10 degrees below average.   

--Dr. Josh

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