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Approaching front, few showers late

6 months 3 weeks 4 days ago May 12, 2016 May 12, 2016 Thursday, May 12 2016 May 12, 2016 5:47 AM in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Rain chances will increase briefly before a dry forecast returns to the area in time for the weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday will continue a similar weather pattern with a partly sunny afternoon allowing high temperatures to top out in the upper 80s. As a cold front approaches the area, it is feasible that isolated showers and thunderstorms begin to develop closer to the evening and overnight hours—especially in coastal areas and north of the interstates. Most of what will be widely scattered precipitation is indeed expected to hold off until the overnight hours.

Up Next: Friday will begin near 70 degrees with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers. A front will continue to fizzle over the area through the day bringing an end to rain chances from north to south. It does look as though afternoon sun will return bringing highs back into the mid 80s. The weekend will feature mostly sunny afternoons with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 60s.          

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion: An upper level trough in the Midwest is continuing to flatten. The leftover frontal zone will be pushed southward toward the Gulf Coast as a new trough dropping out of Canada begins to deepen in the Eastern United States. With the approach of that front on Thursday Evening and Friday, isolated shower and thunderstorm development is anticipated thanks to the better forcing available. There will be plenty of warmth and moisture available at the surface but buoyancy won’t be ideal on account of shallow lapse rates resulting from the trough being displaced so far to the north. In addition, wind fields aren’t favorable for severe weather either. By the Late Friday, the front will have cleared the region or washed out and a brief period of dry air advection will allow for a temporary break in humidity and clearer skies. While the weekend is expected to be dry, return flow will kick back into gear next week and another frontal zone to the north should begin to provide a focus for isolated convection each afternoon.  

--Josh

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