Here are the key forecast points through the weekend:
-Rounds of rain and thunderstorms will continue
-Determining the timing will be difficult, but greatest rain chances will be during the day
-No washouts are expected
-Through the 7-Day Forecast, 2-4 inches of rain will fall with isolated heavier amounts where thunderstorm downpours occur
The entire WBRZ Weather forecast area picked up measurable rain on Tuesday. Some locations, mainly south of I-10, received more than 3 inches of rain with radar estimates as high as 5 inches. Less widespread and less persistent storms should result in lower amounts in the coming days.
Today and Tonight: Another day with scattered showers and thunderstorms is ahead. Most of the activity should occur during the midday hours. High temperatures will struggle for the mid 80s with a few breaks of sun possible. Overnight will be quieter but still mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the low 70s.
Up Next: Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Monday. 13 Parish and 3 County forecast area rain coverage should be in the 40 to 60 percent range any given day. A little more sun is anticipated than earlier in the week and therefore highs should climb into the mid 80s. Lows will stay in the low 70s. By Sunday, another storm system will return to the region increasing rain coverage once again.
The LSU Softball team competing in the College World Series in Oklahoma City will have to dodge showers and thunderstorms for their 1:30pm start slated for Thursday. No better luck is expected for the LSU Baseball team hosting the NCAA Regional in Baton Rouge. With scattered thunderstorms in the forecast, several delays are possible through the weekend.
THE SCIENCE: A stalled front will continue to be the focal point for showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through Thursday. As ripples of mid and upper level energy ride over this boundary, rain and thunderstorm development will be enhanced. Precipitable water values in the 1.75 – 2 inch range will be sufficient for locally heavy rain and possibly some nuisance flooding. The impulses are very subtle and therefore timing out each batch of rain will be difficult—best done on a day to day basis. There will be a lean toward midday activity thanks to added warmth which will be further aided by upper disturbances. By Friday, there are signs that the stationary front will wash out as a new warm front develops in the northern Gulf. This boundary will move inland over the weekend, returning a lifting mechanism for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Daily rain coverage will vary through Sunday but should not dip below 40 percent for the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area. At the same time, no washouts are expected. It is possible that a cold front sweeps through the area early next week providing a break from the highly unsettled regime. Through next week, the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting an additional 2-4 inches of rain in Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippui. The bottom line is this—during the late spring and early summer, if there is any kind of disturbance from the surface to the upper levels, enough moisture and instability is available for widespread activity like this. An upper level ridge or surface high pressure is ultimately needed to taper the showers and thunderstorms.