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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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The LSU Baseball team will be hosting the NCAA Regional at Alex Box Stadium this weekend while the unsettled weather pattern continues. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around for game one at 2:30 Friday Afternoon—and that forecast remains the same through the weekend. The LSU Tarp Crew may have several “pulls” to handle this weekend as LSU and other visitors wait out several delays.

The LSU Softball team is competing in the College World Series in Oklahoma City where dodgy showers and thunderstorms may be an issue. For the 7pm start against Florida on Friday evening, a lingering shower will be possible as temperatures settle into the upper 70s.


THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Friday will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Approximately 50 percent of the area will pick up measurable rain. Any storms will continue to have the potential to produce locally heavy rain. Nuisance flooding may result. Remember not to drive across a flooded road. Highs will make it into the low to mid 80s. Friday night will be mostly cloudy with stray showers. Lows will stop in the low 70s.   

Especially south of I-10, some locations have seen more than 6 inches of rain since Sunday with all locations in the forecast area receiving at least 2 inches. That being said, a saturated ground will make runoff difficult and some street and poor drainage flooding could crop up quickly from thunderstorm downpours. If you notice any flooding issues, report them to weather@wbrz.com or tweet @WBRZweather. Photos and videos are helpful if they can be taken safely!

Up Next: Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Monday. 13 Parish and 3 County forecast area rain coverage should be in the 40 to 60 percent range any given day. At this point, neither day is expected to washout, but Saturday is pegged to be a little more active than Sunday. High temperatures still should not climb above the middle 80s with overnight low temperatures remaining in the low 70s. By Tuesday, a cold front will move into the area which will eventually sweep away the unsettled pattern and some humidity for the middle of next week. Timing has shifted later with this front and now Wednesday looks like the earliest we may see a completely dry day.

THE SCIENCE: Precipitable water values are slowly increasing and will be near 2 inches over much of the area Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, convective temperatures will remain in the lower and middle 80s. This will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday. In the absence of any mid to upper level waves (and these have been and will be difficult to detect more than 12 hours out), this will lead to primarily midday scattered showers and thunderstorms. No organized severe weather is expected either day. However, localized heavy rain may continue to occur with the strongest storm cells. After several inches of rain over the past few days, the saturated ground will not tolerate downpours well and runoff may cause some isolated flooding issues. Forecast models suggest a slight drop in moisture levels for Sunday and Monday, which could lead to slightly lower areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and slightly warmer high temperatures—but likely only different by 10-20 percent rain coverage and 2-3 degrees in temperatures. The bottom line is this—during the late spring and early summer, if there is any kind of disturbance from the surface to the upper levels, enough moisture and instability is available for widespread activity like this. An upper level ridge or surface high pressure is ultimately needed to taper the showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, forecast confidence drops somewhat as the GFS model has become considerably slower in bringing a cold front through the area. The ECMWF continues to push that cold front through on Tuesday. There is a possibility that some moisture from an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico could throw a wrench in this part of the forecast. Stay with us as we monitor the situation.

--Josh

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