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Tuesday morning video forecast
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A weak area of high pressure will maintain dry and tranquil weather through the middle of the week. Do expect gradually warming temperatures prior to the next cold front.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday will feature sunny skies. Any fog along the coast will diminish by 9am. High temperatures will reach near 74 degrees with light, southwest winds. Overnight will be clear with low temperatures near 48 degrees.
Up Next: Highs will warm a little more each day reaching the mid 70s on Wednesday and the upper 70s by Thursday. Lows will also warm daily from the upper 40s to mid 50s. A frontal system will return showers and possibly thunderstorms by Friday. The most difficult aspect of this forecast is timing of the front. 4 days away, there is still a decent spread of possibilities that leave early Friday to late Saturday as a window of opportunity for rain. More specifics and a tighter window should materialize in the coming days.
The Tropics: A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better organized and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has been developing closer to the center since yesterday. There is an 80 percent chance of a tropical or subtropical depression forming while the system moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic during the next day or two. The low is forecast to interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is unlikely after that time.
THE EXPLANATION:
A weak upper level ridge will continue to support gradual warming through the middle of the week. This will be most noticeable during the afternoons. Moisture remains limited and the drier air cools and warms much more efficiently. This will mean large swings from cool, near normal morning temperatures to mild, above normal afternoon temperatures. As the moisture does return, especially in coastal areas where it is inherently more abundant, fog could develop in the mornings. A deep, cut-off low pressure system across the Southwest will soon merge with an upper level trough moving in from the Pacific. This system will move across the United States dragging a cold front through the local area on Friday night. Instability and lift along the front should be sufficient to create showers and a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. The latest thinking on timing is that the front will clear the area by Saturday afternoon, effectively ending rain chances. The threat for severe weather is low, but not zero. If any strong thunderstorms develop along the front, strong winds would be the main threat. Dry and cool conditions with temperatures 5-10 degrees below average are expected fort the second half of the weekend and early next week.
--Josh
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