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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Monday morning video forecast

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Two warm afternoons are expected prior to below average temperatures for the middle of the week. A few showers may occur prior to that cool down.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Clouds will increase throughout Monday as moisture begins to move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico. As this occurs, especially during the afternoon hours, a shower is possible. Highs will top out in the low 80s. Overnight, a cold front will approach from the west, ahead of it, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. The threat for severe weather is very low. One or two storms could create gusty wind in southwest Mississippi. Lows will be in the upper 60s.    

Up Next: As a frontal system crosses the area from west to east on Tuesday morning, showers and thunderstorms will continue. By afternoon, skies will begin to clear from west to east and temperatures will recover some 10 degrees in response to sunshine to reach about 80. With clear skies and light, northerly winds overnight lows will take a nice dip and end up below average in the upper 40s! Wednesday through Friday will be pleasant with mainly clear skies and gradually moderating temperatures.  The next frontal system and chance for rain is pegged for next weekend.   

THE EXPLANATION:

A relatively stable atmosphere will make it difficult for anything more than a few weak showers to develop this afternoon and evening as onshore flow promotes rising dew points. This will occur ahead of a frontal system that will move in from the west overnight. The parent surface low will move along the I-20 corridor which is close enough to the local area to support favorable severe weather wind profiles but the timing of the system will make for poor instability. Just enough may be available that closer to the surface low, counties in southwest Mississippi could find some gusty thunderstorms around daybreak. Rain will end from west to east and the cold front drags away on Tuesday afternoon. Due to the warmer starting point in the upper 60s and low 70s along with returning sunshine, Tuesday afternoon will be rather warm in the low to mid 80s. Northerly winds behind the front will then allow much cooler air to settle into the region into Wednesday morning. Low temperatures could dip into the upper 40s in many neighborhoods. A surface high pressure system will build in on Wednesday with dry conditions and a near average temperatures. The high will slide east and an upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley will maintain dry conditions Thursday. Onshore winds will allow a warming trend to end the week. The next upper level trough will drive an associated cold front on Saturday bringing the next chances of showers and thunderstorms.

--Josh

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