Monday morning video forecast
After a pleasant weekend, unsettled weather is expected through mid-week. The threats for heavy and strong thunderstorms are both on the table.
Today and Tonight: Your Monday will continue the milder and moderating temperature trend that began on Saturday. High temperatures will top out in the mid 70s. Unlike the weekend through, some rain showers may be around. Only isolated showers and anticipated on what will otherwise be a mostly cloudy day. Overnight, expect clouds, fog and spotty showers with low temperatures in the mid 60s.
Up Next: A weakening cold front will slide into the area on Tuesday, increasing rain coverage. The front is expected to stall near the Gulf Coast and where this occurs, there could be a prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms—potentially creating some localized street and poor drainage flooding. Temperatures will stay muggy in the upper 70s. As a surface low develops in south Texas, the front will move back to the north as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday, further increasing coverage in showers and thunderstorms.
As the warmer and more humid air from the Gulf is quickly restored by the advancing warm front, in areas south of this, a window of opportunity will open for strong thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 2 out of 5 “slight risk” for severe weather, mainly south of I-12. Gusty wind and isolated tornadoes are possible.
Additionally, downpours could leave behind 1-3 inches of rain by the end of this event. Wednesday will likely be messy and unsettled with widespread rain, heavy at times, and embedded strong thunderstorms. Much quieter and seasonable weather is expected Thursday through the weekend.
A zonal (west to east) flow is in place in the upper levels of the atmosphere with a trough digging into the southwestern United States. A weak disturbance in the zonal flow over western Texas may lead to the development of isolated showers Monday afternoon, but compared to Tuesday and Wednesday, today’s weather will be rather benign. Advancing low level moisture due to southerly winds will keep moderating temperatures with most highs reaching the mid 70s. The southwest U.S. trough will shift farther east on Tuesday sending a cold front through the local area with a round of showers and thunderstorms. The front will stall and reverse course over the local area, likely leading to more coverage and an extended window of activity. A stalling front could even lead to a training storm cell scenario and therefore a threat for localized flooding. The upper level trough axis will cross the forecast area on Wednesday with an associated surface low and attendant cold front. Forecast models depict the surface low moving directly over the I-10/12 corridor. This will lead to an area of widespread rain Wednesday through Wednesday night and possibly some stronger storms in the warm sector of the system—generally south of I-12.
The position of the surface low and northward advance of the associated warm front will set the borders for where severe weather can occur. Any locations falling south of these features will run the risk. Wednesday afternoon will be the time with the most instability available to support strong storms. The front will sweep through the area on Thursday morning drying the area out for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will briefly go slightly below average on Thursday and maybe Friday before rebounding over the weekend.
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