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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Monday morning video forecast

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A rather quiet week of weather is ahead with only slow, subtle changes occurring. Spring begins on Wednesday at 4:58pm.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Clouds will be increasing through the day, as a weak upper level trough approaches the region. This southwest to northeast wind flow aloft will be responsible for the stream of moisture that keeps clouds in place. High temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 60s. Clouds will cause low temperatures to stop in the upper 40s overnight.

Up Next:  The trough will chug east on Tuesday, opening to door for high pressure to move in and take control of the weather pattern. This will turn skies sunny and allow slowly warming temperatures through the latter half of the week. Highs will break into the low 70s by Wednesday, with lows bottoming out Wednesday morning as temperatures drop to near 42. Sunny to mostly sunny skies stay the course through the rest of the week, with highs warming into the mid-to-upper 70s and lows increasing into the low 50s. The next significant shot at rain will hold off until at least next Sunday and it is too early to hash out any details on this one.

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 43.8’ as of Monday morning. Due to rover flooding and drainage north of the area, runoff will keep the river near this crest for the next several days. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for a few spots north and south of Baton Rouge that are not protected by levees. Unprotected low-lying areas will be flooded and agricultural operations will be impacted on the west side of the river. The grounds of the older part of Louisiana State University's campus become soggy. This includes the area around the Veterinary Medicine building, the Veterinary Medicine Annex, the stadium and ball fields. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees at this level.

THE EXPLANATION:

A plume of moisture in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will continue to spread high cloud cover across the region through Monday. By Tuesday, this moisture will finally depart east and surface high pressure will help to open up skies to a bit more sunshine. A few reinforcing fronts will move through the area through Wednesday but will be passing by dry. There is a slight possibility of a shower with the front that moves through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but no measurable rain is anticipated through Saturday at this point. These weak, reinforcing boundaries will not even be capable of significantly shifting wind direction. Only by Friday will winds stream easterly and allow a bit of moisture to return ahead of a weak front. While the near term is quite and straightforward, forecast model guidance is in disarray for the long-term portion of the forecast. The American model brings a weak front through on Sunday with possibly a few showers. The European model brings a much more dynamic storm system through Monday into Monday night with potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Some of this should be cleared up in the days to come.

--Josh

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