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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Monday evening video forecast

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As the summer pattern is restored, another familiar seasonal foe has reared its head. The first tropical system in several weeks has our attention on the central Atlantic Ocean.

Next 24 Hours: Any showers will diminish after sunset. Beneath mostly clear skies, low temperatures will fall back into the mid 70s. It will stay muggy. Tuesday will be warm and humid with high temperatures charging for the low 90s. Mostly sunny skies are expected and there should be slightly fewer showers and thunderstorms popping in the afternoon compared to Monday.    

Up Next: Wednesday will be a repeat of Tuesday before afternoon showers and thunderstorms become a bit more common by the end of the week. For the 13 Parish, 3 County Forecast Area, rain coverage will be around 30 to 50 percent Thursday into Saturday. As for temperatures, highs will be near 92 with lows near 75. Sunday and beyond may ultimately depend on the exact track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Even though it may not directly impact the local area, where it ends up will determine if our weather stays busy or dries and cools a bit.  CLICK HERE for your full 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six at 4pm Monday. Just east of the Leeward Islands with maximum winds of 35mph, this system is not yet well organized enough to be deemed a tropical depression. As it moves west-northwest at 15mph over the next few days, gradual strengthening is anticipated and it is expected to become Tropical Storm Fred over the next day or two. From there the system will scrape across the Caribbean Islands through the week, likely making additional strengthening slow. Although this system could end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, it does not appear to pose a threat to the local area at this time. The current thinking is that this system will start to work northward near the peninsula of Florida as a tropical storm.  

For the latest tropical forecasts and information, visit the WBRZ Hurricane Center as we navigate all 183 Days of Hurricane Season.

The Explanation:  Atmospheric moisture is expected to remain a little below average through the middle of the week which will stand in the way of widespread torrential thunderstorms. Still, there is enough heat and humidity this time of year to provide plenty of instability for isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. That humidity will combine with high temperatures in the low 90s to produce feels-like temperatures near 105 degrees each afternoon. Toward the end of the week, an upper level ridge over the Southeast will begin to erode due to a trough moving across the northern half of the country and an upper level low associated with a tropical system approaching from the western Atlantic Ocean. Days that feature ample moisture will lead to more scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Saturday and beyond will be dependent on the eventual fate of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which does not appear to pose a threat to the local area at this time, but it is too early to eliminate that possibility.

--Josh

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