May 18, 2019 Forecast
Tonight and Tomorrow: Spotty to isolated showers will be tapering off through the overnight period, as temperatures drop to a low of 72°. Winds will stay elevated at times and out of the southeast between 10 and 15 mph. An approaching line of convection that is associated with a strong shortwave trough will be pushing into our area around daybreak on Sunday. Showers will develop into strong storms through the afternoon and into the evening. The approaching line of convection will be decaying as it nears the Gulf Coast, with showers initiating after 10 AM. Daytime heating and instability will allow for the development of afternoon and evening storms, which will incur periods of heavy downpours, gusty conditions, and frequent lightning. There will be a lack of shear in the atmosphere, which will help suppress these storms in gaining severe status and keep tornadic activity to a minimum with limited rotation in the atmosphere. There are portions of the viewing area that are included in the Storm Prediction Center’s Marginal (1 out of 5) category, which is mainly north of the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will warming quickly, into the 80s by 10 AM as we near an afternoon high of 86°.
Up Next: Afternoon pop-up showers extend into Monday and Tuesday, before dry and warm conditions set up camp through the remainder of the week.
A lingering mid-level moisture axis will stay across our area on Monday, which will help fire up isolated storms through the afternoon once temperatures break into the mid-80s. This storm activity will mainly be confined to areas along the I-10 corridor and north, where the convergence along the seabreeze front will be at its maximum. These storms will not be too strong, and will also not be long-lasting. Cells should dissipate quickly after sunset, but will return on an even weaker signature on Tuesday. A very dry and warm air mass will move in on Wednesday, keeping skies sunny and breaking high temperatures into the low 90s. This weather pattern will stay through the rest of the week and into the weekend, as highs will hover between 90 and 92 through Saturday.
--Meteorologist Matt Callihan
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