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Wednesday PM Forecast: as winter rages in the north, we watch for record warmth

1 month 2 days 17 hours ago Wednesday, February 22 2023 Feb 22, 2023 February 22, 2023 4:50 PM February 22, 2023 in Forecast Discussion
Source: WBRZ Weather

Winds will subside a bit overnight. Warm temperatures will now be the main weather story through the weekend.

Tonight & Tomorrow: After a windy afternoon, the overnight south breeze will ease into the 10-15mph, range. Another night of low clouds is expected with low temperatures staying in the upper 60s. Thursday has the potential to challenge record high temperatures but it may be dependent on how much sun can break through the clouds. If they are as thick as previous afternoons, and it looks like they will be, it will be difficult to reach the standing record of 86 degrees set just last year. Still, it will be a warm day with highs in the mid 80s.

Up Next: Friday through Sunday will remain warm. A little more afternoon sun is expected and high temperatures will be running about 15 degrees above average between 83 and 85 degrees. Overnight low temperatures will stay rather muggy too, in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the area on Monday. While temperatures will temporarily come down a few degrees behind the front, they will stay above average into the middle of next week. The most noticeable change will be a dip in humidity.

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Detailed Forecast: A broad and anomalous upper level ridge of high pressure will anchor over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. This will cause well above average high and low temperatures, and largely shield the area from organized systems capable of producing rain. Given the prevalence of morning stratus clouds with this regime, it has been challenging for temperatures to warm until the clouds lift and mix out a bit. This could be the difference maker in many areas falling just short of breaking record highs Thursday through Saturday. Additionally, with warmer surface temperatures and low-level moisture still present, a token ten percent shot at a shower will be left in the forecast since a weak front will stall in the region. The ridge will reach peak heights over the area on Friday and then slowly back into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and start to weaken some before finally being suppressed to the southeast Sunday and Monday. As a result, while Saturday and Sunday will still be quite warm, temperatures may back off by a degree or two. Into Monday, the next upper level trough of low pressure will have a clearer path into the region thanks to ridge retreating. All of the ingredients for severe weather will come in early and then quickly move north of the area. Meanwhile, the actual cold front will come much later int he day suggesting a broken, thin band of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. In fact, coverage looks like it could be rather sparse at this time. Drier dewpoints will follow allowing a cooler morning on Tuesday and about two days of high temperatures in the 70s instead of the 80s.


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