Thursday PM Forecast: showers continue, flood risk a bit next lower next two days

1 month 3 weeks 4 days ago Thursday, August 04 2022 Aug 4, 2022 August 04, 2022 4:29 PM August 04, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The showers and thunderstorms followed a more typical schedule on Thursday—with primarily afternoon activity. Again, some storms dumped a couple of inches leading to street and poor drainage flooding.

Next 24 Hours: Like the last several days, any leftover showers will end after nightfall with gradual clearing in skies. Low temperatures will end up in the low to mid 70s. On Friday, a slightly drier atmosphere should keep most of the morning hours dry before showers and thunderstorms scatter the region in the afternoon. High temperatures will make it into the low 90s before rain and clouds cover skies.

We are often talking about those rain chances or percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain 

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember

Up Next: Well above average moisture will quickly return to the atmosphere late Saturday through the middle of next week. As a result, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible around the forecast area daily. Saturated areas will need to be monitored for cumulative rainfall totals allowing flood issues to develop a bit more quickly than usual. As far as temperatures go, lows will be close to average in the low to mid 70s and highs will be slightly below average in the upper 80s and low 90s.  CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days. Both Colorado State University and NOAA updated their hurricane season forecasts on Thursday. CLICK HERE to see those changes.

The Explanation: The local area remains trapped between an upper level ridge of high pressure to the west and another to the east. The relative weakness in between the two ridges has been creating instability over the Gulf Coast. Additionally, the value, which we use to assess overall moisture in the atmosphere, known as precipitable water, remains well above average. Therefore, another healthy crop of heavy thunderstorms is expected on Thursday. There are some signs it will retreat toward normal by the end of the week, owing to slightly less action on Friday but surely not a full shut down in convection. The showers and thunderstorms that do develop should be more limited to the afternoon hours--as is typical for the time of year. The briefly "drier" conditions on Friday won't last long with precipitable water chugging well above average again by Saturday afternoon or Sunday. This will bring a return to higher and longer coverage of showers and thunderstorms into the middle of next week.

--Josh

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