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Monday AM Forecast: Warm start to October, Tropics very active

1 month 2 weeks 10 hours ago Monday, September 30 2024 Sep 30, 2024 September 30, 2024 6:01 AM September 30, 2024 in Forecast Discussion
Source: The Storm Station

The new workweek will feature mainly quiet conditions with above average temperature for the start of October, but a disturbance could enter the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. Check back in with the Storm Station daily for the latest. 

Today & Tonight: Temperatures before sunrise Monday will fall into the middle and upper 60's but quickly warm throughout the day. Afternoon highs in the Capital Region will be in the low 90s with a mix of sun and clouds. There's no rain chance again today as the air remains a bit too dry to squeeze out any showers. Overnight lows will be near 70 degrees in Baton Rouge under mostly clear skies. 

Up Next: Through Wednesday, temperatures will return to the lower 90s each afternoon with party sunny skies and a lack of rain. Lows all week will be near 70 degrees. By Thursday, the gradual return of gulf moisture in to the area along with a weak front near the region could result in a slight uptick in rain coverage to end the week. Thursday and Friday both hold a chance for spotty showers but could trend higher in coverage as the week wears on. However, no major rainmaker or cool down is expected in the next 7 days. 


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The Tropics: 

Tropical Storm Kirk became 11th named storm of the 2024 season Monday morning in the Eastern Atlantic. It has winds of 45 mph and is moving west at 8 mph. Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a Hurricane by mid-week as it moves northwest through the Atlantic. Future Kirk poses no direct impact to land at this time. 

Tropical Depression Joyce continues to weaken over open waters. Joyce will become post-tropical on Monday. 

Tropical Storm Isaac is also forecast to become post-tropical on Monday as it is moving into cooler waters in the Northern Atlantic. 

A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms early Monday.  Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.  This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week.  Interests in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system in the coming days.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system poses no direct threat to the Louisiana coast. 

– Emma Kate C. 

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