THE FORECAST: 

Tonight and Tomorrow: Another chilly night ahead, as temperatures drop slowly to around 42° overnight. Developing clouds will keep these temperatures from dipping into the 30s, but freezing temperatures are in the forecast. These clouds are ahead of a warm front that will be breaking onshore late Sunday, allowing the potential for spotty showers to linger through much of the day. They should start in the afternoon, and produce more scattered rainfall through the evening and overnight hours into Monday. Cloudy skies will suppress highs on Sunday to only 56°.

Up Next:  Clouds and showers over the next several days, as rainfall amounts are expected to be between 2 and 4 inches through Tuesday. Clearing conditions on Tuesday will lead to below freezing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday night. Gradual warming is expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.   

The Tropics: Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has increased in organization during the past several hours, and satellite data indicate that the wave is producing strong gusty winds. No significant development of this system is anticipated during the next couple of days, but conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 50% chance of development within the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

A low pressure system has developed southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and is continuing up the Texas coast. This system will approach the Louisiana Coast in the next 24 hours, bringing with it a warm front that has increased cloud cover over our area into Sunday. Showers ahead of the front will likely develop through the afternoon and into the evening on Sunday. They would travel from southeast to northwest, but a cluster of low pressures will be approaching from the west. These two systems will converge over the Deep South States keeping showers and storms in the forecast through Tuesday morning. A deep supply of moisture is travelling with both systems, so we could experience heavy downpours and areas of flash flooding is possible through the day on Monday. Strong high pressure is behind these fronts, breaking clouds up quickly late Tuesday and cooling conditions fast. Tuesday’s highs will stay in the upper 40s, with overnight lows into Wednesday morning dropping into the upper 20s. A slow warm-up period will occur through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, as sunny skies finally allow highs to reach into the low 60s Friday. Lows should stay just below freezing on Wednesday night, before hovering around 40° Thursday and Friday nights.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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