Front to stall in the region, return showers and storms
After a brief spell of comfortable air, warmth and humidity will creep up through the week. No high impact weather systems are in the forecast but some showers and thunderstorms will be back in play.
Today and Tonight: Some sunshine will certainly be available on Tuesday although clouds are expected to develop during the afternoon. A spotty shower could spin through the area later, but coverage will be very low and limited to areas north of I-10. As a reminder, though isolated, thunderstorms can easily turn strong during the warm season due to lots of available heat energy. Downpours, frequent lightning, gusty wind and even small hail are possible. Highs will top out in the upper 80s with lows stopping in the upper 60s.
Up Next: Humidity will be back in force by Wednesday. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast as a weak front stalls over the area. Since the front will not need heating to activate precipitation, the chance for rain will be in place from near dawn through dusk. A day or more clouds will also keep high temperatures closer to 80 degrees. Thursday through Memorial Day, we should see the traditional pop-up afternoon showers or thunderstorms—some days busier than others—though it is tough to identify which ones until we get closer. Temperatures will steadily warm through the week as well with high temperatures getting close to 90 by Thursday.
It has been a while since we talked about those rain chances, or percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.
10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain
30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain
60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain
Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember
The Tropics: Tropical Storm Arthur was located over 300 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as of 5am Tuesday morning. Moving east at 15mph, Arthur is expected to accelerate on and dive southeast into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds of 60mph could increase slightly before the system begins to lose tropical characteristics.
A weak front separating warm, humid Gulf air and dry continental air will move into the region Tuesday evening and stall through Thursday morning. This front will trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms, generally north of I-10 on Tuesday afternoon. Dry air aloft will keep the coverage limited, but any thunderstorm updrafts can entrain this dry air which leads to a threat for gusty winds and hail. Point being, while showers and thunderstorms will not be extensive, those that develop could be strong. The stalling front will also set up a confined area for repetitive storms which means there is a localized areal flooding threat too. The front is expected to be most active across the I-10/12 corridor on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible from sunrise to sunset. The same conditions go for Wednesday that isolated strong storms and heavy rain are possible. The front will drift back to the north and diminish on Thursday allowing humid Gulf of Mexico air to push inland. As a result, Friday through Memorial Day will bring a familiar and repetitive pattern of early warmth and humidity followed by isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. That is, some will see them, some will not and no single day will be a washout. Again, any of these warm season thunderstorms can be attention getting with downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind.
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