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Friday PM Forecast: timing out rain and storms for Saturday

4 months 2 weeks 4 days ago Friday, November 04 2022 Nov 4, 2022 November 04, 2022 4:39 PM November 04, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

A line of rain and thunderstorms will kick off the weekend. Drying should occur just in time for the big game.

Next 24 Hours: A weakening cold front will approach the area overnight and into Saturday. Ahead of this, winds will increase out of the southeast at 10-15mph holding overnight temperatures in the low 70s. A line of rain and thunderstorms will push in from the west around 4am. Briefly gusty wind and downpours are possible as the line arrives. The front will be stalling and falling apart over the area, so a period of moderate rain will continue through the morning hours as temperatures slip into the mid 60s. Showers will end from west to east by afternoon. For those tailgating, expect that wet weather early. Temperatures may briefly rebound into the 70s if some sun can sneak out in the afternoon, but will return to the mid 60s into the evening. Heading into Tiger Stadium, most of the activity should be over with, but you should still take in a poncho in the event of a lingering shower. Overall, with the damp conditions and a breeze, you may need a windbreaker or light jacket for much of Saturday.  

Up Next: Sunday will be partly sunny and mild with high temperatures in the low 80s. A stray shower is possible. Largely quiet weather is expected for the new workweek. Monday through Thursday will be mostly clear with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s. Those temperatures are a good ten degrees above average for the time of year. A cold front may arrive late next week to bring cool air for the following weekend. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: Tropical Depression Lisa is drifting north across the Bay of Campeche with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. Lisa will slow down and become a remnant post-tropical low over the weekend.

A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms, mostly well to the east of its center. There is just a ten percent chance of tropical or subtropical development during the next day or so while it moves westward or west northwestward. The system is forecast to interact with a larger low pressure area developing to its southwest and will encounter stronger upper level winds on Saturday, so further development is not anticipated beyond that time.

A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic by the latter part of the weekend. The system is initially expected be very broad and disorganized, but there is a forty percent chance it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the early part next week. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and  beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast.

The Explanation: An upper level trough of low pressure will dig into the Lower Midwest with an associated cold front developing at the surface over Texas through Friday evening. As the trough shifts northeastward into Saturday, the cold front will be pulled across Louisiana and Mississippi during the morning hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to enter the area before daybreak. While severe weather should be limited due to lacking ingredients and the fact that storms will move in during the coolest part of the day, one or two stronger wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the precipitation. Additionally, ample moisture will allow for some downpours and a quick inch or two of rain in some areas. Isolated, localized flooding is possible. As the upper level trough of low pressure continues to lift away from the front, the line of showers and thunderstorms will taper from west to east. So, while the bulk of the rain is expected to occur during the first half of the day, lingering showers are possible into the early afternoon. Going into the work week, the forecast becomes a bit uncertain, as the location and intensity of a possible subtropical cyclone over the western Atlantic remains up in the air. Given the low confidence in any one specific solution, kept the forecast to remain generally quiet through the first half of the week.


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