Forecast change: timing the next cold front
Expect mild afternoons for the remainder of the workweek. A cold front will bring showers into the forecast Friday into Saturday.
Today and Tonight: Wednesday will be another afternoon with sunshine. Some thin clouds may mix in at times. Expect thermometers to break into the 60s by 10am and the 70s by lunchtime. The high temperature of 78 degrees will occur around 3pm. Overnight will be mostly clear with a low temperature near 55 degrees.
Up Next: Temperatures will remain mild on Thursday and Friday. However, clouds will begin to overtake the area as moisture builds in the atmosphere. A frontal system will return showers and possibly thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. At this time, the threat for strong thunderstorms is low. In a forecast change, it now appears that showers could linger into the first half of Saturday and possibly longer. Though ponchos are not being recommended for Tiger Stadium yet, LSU Football fans and tailgaters will want to monitor this part of the forecast. Do plan to take some layers out to campus as afternoon temperatures will be in the 60s but the morning and evening will be in the 50s. Clearing skies are expected Saturday night, setting up a clear and cool Sunday.
The Tropics: Tropical Storm Sebastien formed around 9am on Tuesday morning and is now located well northeast of Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are at 50mph with a minimum central pressure of 1002mb. The storm is moving northwest at 8mph as is expected to turn north later today and then northeast later tomorrow, possibly strengthening a little more. A cold front will absorb Sebastien over the open Atlantic by Friday.
A weak upper level ridge will continue to support gradual warming through Thursday. This will be most noticeable during the afternoons. Moisture remains limited and the drier air cools and warms much more efficiently. This will mean large swings from cool, near normal morning temperatures to mild, above normal afternoon temperatures. As the moisture does return, especially in coastal areas where it is inherently more abundant, fog could develop in the mornings.
A deep, cut-off low pressure system across the Southwest will soon merge with an upper level trough moving in from the Pacific. This system will move across the United States dragging a cold front through the local area. Over the last few days, forecast model guidance has been trending faster with this storm system showing a Friday night passage. That has now changed, slowly considerably. A slower upper level trough and cold front would lead to warmer and drier weather on Friday with rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning. Given the nature of the upper level low, which is cut off from the steering jet stream, it would not be surprising to see this system slow even more. Instability and lift along the front should be sufficient to create showers and a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. The latest thinking on timing is that the front will clear the area by Saturday afternoon, effectively ending rain chances. Dry and cool conditions with temperatures 5-10 degrees below average are expected fort the second half of the weekend and early next week.
A potent cool season, mid-latitude cyclone will move across the central United States on Tuesday and Wednesday. While it is too early for details, these types of storms can be severe weather events and we are entering a climatologically favorable time of year for this to occur. Even if the local area does not deal with high impacts, rain and storms in the region could have a negative influence on expansive holiday travel.
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