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Chilly and quiet until late week

4 months 1 week 2 days ago Monday, December 10 2018 Dec 10, 2018 December 10, 2018 6:20 AM December 10, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

An area of high pressure will dictate fair weather through Midweek. Once that system moves east, milder temperature and moisture will preclude the next chance for rain.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Clouds will finally push east of the region by afternoon. Sunny skies will dominate the day, but northerly winds will keep highs in the low 50s. Perfect conditions for cooling temperatures will be in place overnight with clear skies and light winds sending thermometers into the upper 20s and low 30s.

Up Next: High pressure directly overhead will result in all clear skies through Tuesday and as it pushes east, highs will finally break into the mid 60s on Wednesday as winds shift southerly. Warmer air will increase cloud cover on Wednesday, allowing lows to turn milder Thursday and Friday. A cold front will return showers and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday and while it is early for details, this system will need to be monitored for severe weather. The front will linger into Friday morning followed cooler and drier conditions on Saturday.

THE EXPLANATION:

High pressure over Texas will move from west to east across the local area on Tuesday and into the Southeast U.S. by Wednesday. Once clouds move out Monday morning, they will not return until hat area of high pressure causes return flow to commence on Wednesday. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal today and tonight. Readings should have no problem reaching the low 30s Monday night. Areas to the north I-10/12 have already had several bouts of freezing temperatures, so the National Weather Service does not need to issue any warnings for upper 20s and low 30s. However, areas south of I-10 could have their first freeze of the season so some bulletins could be posted for those locations. Beyond Tuesday morning, temperatures will moderate, with highs actually above normal by Wednesday. While forecast model guidance is not agreeing as well as it did for the last storm system, both global models capture the idea of a cold front moving across the local area through the end of this week. Most of the precipitation is expected to occur Thursday and Thursday night. The depth of moisture return is somewhat questionable, as is the instability. There will be plenty of shear though and the surface low may pass just far enough north to allow the entire area to be in the warm sector of the system. Therefore, the possibility of severe weather is on the table. This storm system will move east by the upcoming weekend allowing much nicer conditions than this previous weekend.

--Dr. Josh

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