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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Another soak for soggy Gulf Coast

5 months 2 weeks 2 days ago Wednesday, January 02 2019 Jan 2, 2019 January 02, 2019 6:09 AM January 02, 2019 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

A few more inches of rain will fall through Thursday. This next storm system will briefly return below average temperatures.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A warm front will lift north into the area on Wednesday bringing full cloud cover and scattered showers, primarily north and west of a Baton Rouge to McComb line. Highs will stop in the low 60s. Overnight, some fog will be possible and shower activity will ramp up across the area with lows in the mid 50s.   

Up Next: A storm system will push through the region on Thursday with another round of rain. Amounts of one to three inches are expected. If the highest totals fall in areas flooded last week, we could have some minor issues manifest once again. Clouds should keep temperatures from fluctuating much with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s. Also, the area will not spend much time in the warm sector of the storm system, so there will not be much instability available for severe weather. Showers will end Friday morning. A much needed sunny and dry stretch with gradually moderating temperatures is expected Saturday and Sunday.

THE EXPLANATION:

The cold front that passed through on Monday will move back inland as a warm front on Wednesday.  An area of low pressure will develop along the tail end of this front near the Texas Coast. Forecast models bring scattered showers across the area on Wednesday. A plume of moisture will surge northward out of the Gulf and aid in development of a swath of rain. The bulk of that activity will pass across east Texas, northern Louisiana, and Mississippi. Locally, showers should be more isolated in nature. Parishes and counties northwest of a Baton Rouge to McComb line will stand a better chance of light to moderate rain, while drop should not be falling for most of the day southeast of those areas.

By Thursday, the low will move northeastward across Louisiana bringing a swath of moderate to heavy rain into the region. This path will keep the local area north of the warm sector, so severe weather will not be an issue. Instability will be completely lacking, so we are unlikely to see any thunderstorms at all. However, atmospheric moisture will be near the maximum for the time of year, which means the potential for heavy rain is there. The speed of the overall system appears to be much quicker than the most recent flooding event. That should reduce flash flooding potential. Generally, 1 to 3 inches will fall and that is at the upper end of what should be manageable runoff for area rivers. Anything more and we could face some minor issues again. Significant drying will come by the end of the week as the associated cold front crosses and upper level trough moves east. Colder and drier air will settle into the region for the weekend. An area of surface high pressure will park over Louisiana for the weekend leading to a welcome return of sunshine.

--Dr. Josh

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