A quiet and pleasant feeling weekend will be left behind as showers and thunderstorms come back into the forecast. You will notice a more humid air mass taking over the area as well.

Next 24 Hours: Some fog could try to develop into Tuesday morning as temperatures turn markedly milder in the face of light, southeast winds. Expect low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Blue skies early Tuesday will start to see some cumulus clouds as Gulf moisture builds into the atmosphere. As afternoon high temperatures stretch for 80 degrees, isolated showers and thunderstorms could flare up as well. Any activity should not last very long.  

Up Next: Our weather will turn more active later in the week. Much of Wednesday could be quiet before a round of showers and thunderstorms arrives late in the day or overnight. Thursday through Saturday, a series of upper level disturbances, aided by a slow moving cold front in the region and daytime warming, will result in periods of showers and thunderstorms. While widespread severe weather is not expected, any of these afternoon storms could result in gusty wind, downpours and, of course, lightning. Highs will be topping out near 80 and lows will stop in the mid 60s. It is still unclear if the pattern will settle down over the weekend. CLICK HERE for your full 7-Day Forecast.   

The Explanation: An area of high pressure at the surface will settle near Florida and the southwest Atlantic through the first half of the week. An upper level ridge that was centered over the Midwest last weekend will erode as a sharp, shortwave trough moves across the country. The combination of onshore flow produced by the surface high and less subsidence due to the weakening ridge will allow clouds to develop on Tuesday. Given enough of a moisture return, some showers could develop too, especially in the presence of a weak disturbance moving through in the upper levels. By late Wednesday, a cold front will move into the "Arklatex" region with an ongoing round of showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to race ahead of the boundary, weakening on approach to the local area but should maintain enough integrity to produce scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. While the SPC maintain a “marginal risk” for severe weather, the nighttime arrival and loss of forcing away from the front should preclude a significant threat. The cold front will only crawl toward the central Gulf Coast through Saturday. This feature, with a few more impulses sliding through in the upper levels, will set off rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Instability created by daytime warming will favor afternoons for the activity. Any given afternoon Thursday through Saturday could include thunderstorms with gusty wind and downpours. Fortunately, a lack of wind shear will keep the threat for tornadoes very low. South of the front, onshore winds will maintain above average temperatures through the weekend with highs near 80 and lows in the mid 60s. The is low confidence in what happens beyond Sunday as some forecast model guidance pushes the front through for some drier conditions while others keep it parked and therefore showers and thunderstorms would stay in play.

--Josh

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