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Wednesday morning video forecast

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After one more hot and mostly dry day, rain coverage will increase to end the week. Typical August weather appears to be in store for the upcoming weekend.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday, weather will begin to transition into a more typical afternoon shower and thunderstorm pattern. Isolated activity may creep north of the highways. Still, coverage should be relatively scarce compared to normal and most locations will have no problem achieving top out temperatures in the low 90s. Overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next:  On Thursday, a trough to the north will provide more instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, primarily during the afternoon hours. Highs will just make it into the low 90s before convection develops. Look for this setup to be in place through Saturday, which will keep high temperatures near average in the low 90s with quieter overnights and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

The Tropics:  Subtropical Depression Five has formed in the North Atlantic and could become Ernesto soon. Despite some minor strengthening, this storm will have a short lifespan and will accelerate northeastward and out to sea, and not threaten North America. Overall, the Atlantic Basin remains (fingers-crossed) a hostile environment for tropical cyclone formation.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak, 500mb ridge will lose its influence over the region as a shortwave trough moves across the Mid-South. This 500mb trough axis will align with the forecast area on Thursday and another perturbation in the jet stream will allow this trough to deepen over the Southeastern U.S. through Saturday. As the initial shortwave moves into the region, instability will increase enough to return scattered showers and thunderstorms to the forecast on Thursday and Friday. While the axis of the trough will exit eastward, northwesterly flow on the backside will be favorable for at least afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. On the days featuring more afternoon showers and thunderstorms, temperature will be seasonably hot but we will have relief from long duration heat due to afternoon rain and cloudiness. 

--Dr. Josh

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