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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Wednesday morning video forecast

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The most active weather day of the week is behind us. That does not mean the area will be completely dry to end the week.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A weak cold through central Louisiana will bring lower rain chances to the Baton Rouge area and points north and west on Wednesday. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are still expected for the I-55 corridor to New Orleans and points east. In the absence of overcast skies and early rain, high temperatures will likely make a return to the 90s with light, north winds. As felt on Wednesday morning, slightly drier air will lead to a more comfortable night with lows in the low 70s.

Up Next:  Remnant moisture and lift associated with a decaying front and upper level trough will linger through the week keeping afternoon rain coverage in the isolated category. Locations south and east of Baton Rouge should have a slightly better rain chance each day. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows in the low 70s. A drier trend will unfold by the end of the weekend leading to hotter temperatures into next week.

The Tropics: There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. No development is expected over the next 5 days.    

THE EXPLANATION:

The axis of a shortwave trough will remain over the Mississippi River Valley through the end of the week. The cold front responsible for Tuesday’s active weather will be stalled and dissipating over Louisiana. This will put a fine line between widespread showers and thunderstorms (south and east of the front) and more isolated activity (north and west of the front). This is because that boundary has extended much lower precipitable water values into parts of southeast Louisiana. A difference of just 25-50 miles back to the northwest would result in a much wetter forecast for the Baton Rouge area. Light, northerly winds have resulted in slightly drier and cooler air finding its way into much of the area. Wind direction should revert to the south over the next 48 hours allowing higher humidity to return. With this, there may be a slight uptick in afternoon rain coverage Friday or Saturday. Then, a ridge will build into the Southeast U.S. by early next week returning seasonably hot temperatures and allowing only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. 

--Dr. Josh

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