As we move deeper into April we move closer to the summertime pattern of warmth followed by pop up showers and storms. A taste of that type of weather is ahead.
Today and Tonight: A weak cold front will depart to the northeast today and therefore no change in temperatures is expected. Highs will make it into the mid 80s beneath a partly sunny sky. An isolated shower is not out of the question, but the chance is very slim. Overnight will be mostly clear with a low temperature in the low 60s.
The forecast for Tuesday verified nicely, with a nasty line of showers and thunderstorms in Western Louisiana falling apart before reaching the WBRZ Weather forecast area. As expected, only the northwestern corner of the forecast area picked up rain.
Up Next: Thursday will be a warm one with highs making a run at the upper 80s thanks to ample sunshine. Friday will be warm as well with a few more clouds. Saturday to Tuesday, high temperatures will remain in the mid 80s with low temperatures in the mid 60s. Each day will bring some sun but as thermometers climb, so too will the clouds, eventually producing isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoons. As is typical with “pop-up” action, predicting exact location of showers is not possible until activity develops, but all-day and all-encompassing rain is not expected.
THE SCIENCE: The axis of a weak trough will pull northeast of the forecast area today with a cold front extending farther away as well. There may be just enough frontal forcing left in the region to trigger an isolated shower or thunderstorm but the chances for rain should significantly diminish as the day progresses. A mid-level ridge will pass over the area on Thursday leading to a strong cap and thus mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Given this, high temperatures are projected a bit above model guidance and into the upper 80s. As southerly flow remains established across the Gulf Coast, enough moisture will be in place that as the cap weakens and instability increases, daytime heating will be enough to force out isolated convection Friday to Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show several pockets of positive vorticity advection due to ripples in the jet stream and this would give an extra kick as also. As is typical in a convective regime, timing and placement are difficult but with warmth being a key driver, the isolated showers and thunderstorms should primarily occur from noon to dusk.