Unsettled weather arrives Wednesday
Another relatively quiet day is ahead before we standby for rain and thunderstorms to end the week.
Today & Tonight: Tuesday will be partly sunny with a high in the upper 70s. A few showers are possible near the coast as winds turn around to the south allowing a bit of moisture to return. Overnight, clouds will increase with isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near dawn. Lows will be in the mid 60s.
Looking Ahead: Into Wednesday, skies will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely into the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it does appear as though a few storms could be severe with gusty wind and tornadoes being the main threats. As the situation evolves, know your severe weather plan, stay up to date with the latest forecasts and we’ll let you know if any action is needed. Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday with the concern shifting toward heavy rain. 2-4" will be possible by the end of the event. Both days will bring highs in the upper 70s with lows in the mid 60s. A drying trend will begin Late Friday into the weekend.
Discussion: High pressure will move toward the Northeastern U.S. through Wednesday Morning. In doing so, surface wind will turn southerly allowing a warm front to lift northward through the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough will be digging into the Western U.S. kicking off lee cyclogenesis and setting up a west-southwesterly jet stream. The combination of return flow and deep layer moisture advection will prime the atmosphere while destabilization will allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop. It looks as though there will be two primary impulses sliding through the mid-levels to fire up the action Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and again on Thursday. As far as some of the specific threats… by Wednesday Afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s, a 45-55 knot low-level jet stream and modest instability, the stage will be set for a few severe thunderstorms. At this point, all modes appear to be possible including tornadoes and damaging winds with a lesser hail threat. This threat could persist into the overnight hours. It is worth pointing out that the most abundant instability and highest shear don't come together at the same time according to forecast models--meaning the severe weather chances are conditional. Therefore, at this time it would be prudent to only emphasize POTENTIAL and not certainty. A sample of the atmosphere on Wednesday Morning will provide much more guidance. By Thursday, and the low level jet begins to run parallel with the upper winds and a cold front sags southeastward into the region, the main concern will transition to storms with locally heavy rain. Forecast models are coming into better agreement with regard to timing and it looks as though the front will slowly work through the area on Friday bringing showers to an end. A cooler and drier air mass will move in for a pleasant weekend. A shortwave trough may race through the region over the weekend but with little moisture, even the possibility for clouds is suspect at this point.
Here is Meteorologist Josh Eachus with a detailed briefing:
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