A stubborn stationary front will be draped across the state, spinning up showers and keeping skies cloudy over the next two days. Timing out the rounds of rain will be difficult, but scattered activity will develop every 8-12 hours as small waves of supporting energy swing by in the upper levels. However, it does not look as though any day will be a washout.
Today and Tonight: Tuesday will be similar to yesterday with some thunderstorms in the morning; mainly coastal. They will fizzle a bit by the afternoon, before sun peeks through and helps activate a few more isolated showers and thunderstorms. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will then occur into the evening hours. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, a bit warmer for locations that receive more sun. Tonight will be quiet and sticky again with lows in the mid 70s
Up Next: It looks like the area will continue to remain out of the 90s this week. Toward Thursday and Friday, rain coverage will taper a bit with a little more sunshine. Another front then approaches late in the weekend with even more showers and thunderstorms. It is early, but this portion of the forecast is worth monitoring for some heavier rain.
THE SCIENCE: Multiple upper level impulses are expected to ride over a stalled boundary across the forecast area. Much of the resulting shower and thunderstorm development will be diurnally driven for the next few days. Shortwave ridging may build into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday but this should only limit and not eliminate development. Timing of clouds and precipitation will be the determining factor in high temperatures over the next few days but numbers should stay in the mid to upper 80s through the first half of week. By Friday, deeper moisture will return with impulses moving through the southwesterly mid-level flow across the area. Scattered convection is expected for the weekend with the usual diurnally driven timing. A front then approaches the forecast area this weekend and forecast models are painting a wet picture. We will need to keep an eye on this part of the forecast period with more details as it gets closer.
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