A weak cold front will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Beyond that, rain chances will be minimal through Friday.
Today and Tonight: Today, a weak cold front will move into the region. Skies will be mostly cloudy with high temperatures in the low 80s. The front will bring the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorms—especially north and west of Baton Rouge, but overall forecast area rain coverage should stay on the order of about 30 percent. A lingering shower is possible overnight with temperatures dipping into the low 60s.
Up Next: The front will never fully clear the area and therefore a drop in temperatures is not expected. Wednesday through Friday, high temperatures will remain in the mid 80s with low temperatures in the low 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny. A more summer-like pattern will set up for the weekend with pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible from the late morning through the afternoon hours.
THE SCIENCE: A weak shortwave trough will move across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday with an associated cold front extending into the northern part of the local area. This front will move into very modest mid-level lapse rates and overall instability fairly low. CAPE values will be most favorable over the northwest portion of the forecast area and so the best chance for a shower or thunderstorm will be northwest of a Baton Rouge to McComb line. We’ll go with measurable rain coverage of30 percent with timing limited to the second half of the day during peak heating. Other parameters are well below the criteria needed for severe weather. The front will not fully clear the area and so temperatures will remain warm as skies clear Wednesday and through Friday. A weak ridge will slide east of the area by the weekend and thus instability will increase just enough that daytime heating may yield a few air mass showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Forecast models show just a touch of positive vorticity advection which will result in a touch more uplift as way also suggesting a better chance of some convective activity.