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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Thursday morning video forecast

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Chilly air is out for a while. With the warmth will come returning showers and thunderstorms.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: With a warmer starting point and continued southeasterly winds, Thursday afternoon temperatures will climb into the 70s ahead of a frontal system. Skies will be mostly cloudy with spotty showers possible. Clouds and isolated showers will continue overnight with considerably warmer lows in the mid 60s.

Up Next: Unseasonable mild, moist air will pool across the central Gulf Coast Friday and into Saturday, and this will be sufficient to churn up showers and thunderstorms. While the greatest threat for severe weather will likely stay north of the local area, parameters could still be in place for some stronger action locally, especially overnight into Saturday. At this time, it appears that activity will subside on Saturday afternoon allowing a brief break before the next round of showers during the late Sunday into early Monday period. Cooler air will follow that system.  

Football Forecast: Like the local area, showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing through the day in Lorman, Mississippi as the Southern Jags get set for the SWAC Championship against Alcorn State. While lingering showers remain possible, the severe weather threat will be over and temperatures will stay mild in the low 70s.

The Tropics: 

THE EXPLANATION:

Southerly winds will continue to push moisture into the atmosphere through the end of the week. As this occurs, overcast skies and spotty showers will develop on Thursday. The next significant storm system will develop across the Western Plains into Friday as a 500mb trough digs into the region and sends a surface low and cold front eastward. As this occurs, a secondary warm front will develop across the central Gulf Coast and move northeastward ahead of the cold front. Late Friday into Saturday morning, forecast model guidance shows a negatively tilted trough moving across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, with a strong surface low pressure over Kansas and Missouri. An area of showers and thunderstorms should develop near the secondary warm front over south Louisiana in response to destabilization from advancing dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Upper level forcing will be weak which will be a key limiting factor in widespread severe thunderstorms. However, the wind profiles will be quite favorable for a brief period of time overnight, which along with the unseasonably high moisture, could allow some rotation in the low-levels of the atmosphere. An isolated tornado cannot be eliminated from the forecast. Given the position of the upper trough and surface low, the most favorable combination of shear and instability is likely to remain north of the local area.

Currently, the Storm Prediction Center highlights the greatest chance for severe weather just north of the Baton Rouge area. However, the entire local area has been placed in a 2/5 “slight risk” for severe weather, telling us that one or two storms could be strong with damaging winds being the main threat. But again, wind profiles suggest a tornado could spin up. After this system, there will be a brief break prior to another trough and surface low cutting across the Mid-South. Sunday afternoon and evening, rain showers and a few thunderstorms will return to the area as Saturday’s former cold front drifts back to the north as a warm front. These storms will be elevated and therefore severe weather is a much lower concern. Showers may continue into Monday until the a cold front finally pushes through the region. Even though the cold front may move through around midday, the bulk of the colder air will not begin to move into the region until the evening hours. High and low temperatures will be about 15 degrees below average Tuesday through Thursday.

--Dr. Josh

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