Thursday morning video forecast
More warm temperature records are positioned to fall. There have been three straight record high temperatures and record high, low temperatures.
Today and Tonight: Rain chances will be lower on Thursday as a warm front lifts northward and away from the area. Only an isolated shower will be possible during the day. The spring-like temperatures will continue as we likely push a streak of days in 80s to 8 straight—a record for February. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10mph with a mix of sun and clouds. Overnight will be mostly cloudy and muggy with lows in the upper 60s.
It has been a while since we talked about those rain chances, or percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.
10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain
30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain
60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain
Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain if chances are on the board.
Up Next: A weak disturbance may increase rain coverage a bit on Friday but it should not be enough to stop yet another afternoon high from reaching the 80s. Ditto on Saturday with even lower rain chances. The Baton Rouge area may come just shy of breaking the record for total number of February days in the 80s. The mark is 12 and that was set in 2017. We are expecting highs to reach 80 degrees through Saturday, which would total 11 for the month. A cold front will move into the region Saturday night increasing rain and thunderstorms. Like several of the previous boundaries, this one is expected to stall, this time along the Gulf Coast. If this plays out, a period of unsettled weather with clouds and rain may extend into next week. Even with the next front moving south of the area, temperatures are expected to stay above average. With this warm weather, many have been inspired to ask, “Can I plant my garden?” Our weather team took a shot at answering that question for you, HERE.
An upper level ridge will rebuild across the area as a cold front retreats back to the north as a warm front. Both factors will reduce rain chances Thursday. A weak, fast moving shortwave trough may bump the rain chances back up again Friday before another dip on Saturday. Models have been consistently returning low precipitation output for the first half of the weekend so minimal rain chances will be maintained in the event of a spotty shower. Yet another storm system will cut across the country on Sunday. This one will send another front toward the area increasing rain and thunderstorm chances again for the second half of the weekend. Initially, a line of showers and thunderstorms will likely reach the Gulf of Mexico. At that point the front is pegged to stall over the region. With continued onshore flow moving across this boundary through the atmosphere, the setup seems favorable for a day or two of widespread rain. At this time, amounts look manageable, but given the unusually high atmospheric moisture for the time of year, we will need to monitor this situation for changes.
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