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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Thursday morning video forecast

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You will feel one more comfortably warm afternoon before higher heat and humidity return.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Thursday will bring abundant sunshine and low humidity with afternoon thermometers in the mid 80s and light, westerly winds. The overnight hours will stay clear with lows closer to normal in the mid 60s.

The weather will be much more cooperative for the SEC Tournament in Hoover, Al. today. The LSU Baseball team is scheduled to take on Kentucky at 8pm with clear skies and a comfortable temperature in the upper 60s. The LSU Softball team will begin play in the Super Regional in Tallahassee, Fl. For the Friday and Saturday games, mostly sunny and warm weather is slated. If Sunday’s game is necessary, there could be a stray shower.

Up Next: By Friday, surface winds will turn around to the south with higher heat and humidity returning for the Memorial Day Weekend. Afternoon temperatures should make a strong run for 90 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday. Mornings will be sticky and uncomfortable in the mid 70s. The chance for a “pop-up” afternoon shower is back by Sunday with a front easing into the area Monday to provide an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. That front may stall leaving a focal point for showers and thunderstorms to develop well into the middle of the week.


THE SCIENCE: Surface high pressure will continue to provide mainly clear skies through Thursday. Temperatures will be seasonably warm. As the high translates east on Friday, return flow will result in southerly winds transporting moisture back into the lower levels. Dew points will climb from the low 60s to the low 70s by Saturday. With plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will be returning to the upper 80s and low 90s with low temperatures uncomfortably perched in the low to mid 70s. The next dip in the jet stream is expected to occur around Sunday with a 250mb trough digging from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic. The 500mb trough is not as exaggerated. Still, the features will guide a weak cold front through the area from north to south. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible near the end of the weekend but in all likelihood, the better chances will hold off until Monday when frontal forcing is most prevalent. There is some forecast model disagreement as to what happens after this. The GFS model is progressive sending the front south and leaving only coastal showers on Tuesday while the air cools and dries slightly. The ECMWF stall the front out over Louisiana for the following days which would keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Given the time of year, it does become more and more likely that fronts don’t fully cross into the Gulf, and therefore will favor the ECMWF right now and leave rain showers in the mention.      

--Josh

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