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Thursday Morning video forecast
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A cold front will move into the area tomorrow bringing changes to the weather in time for Mother’s Day weekend.
THE FORECAST:
Today and Tonight: As expected, humidity has increased considerably ahead of this cold front. Dew point readings ave climbed into the middle and upper 60s causing a "sticky" feel for Thursday--noticeably more humid than the first half of the week. Exect more clouds mixing into skies as well. High temperatures will top out in the mid 80s with southerly winds of 5-10mph. Clouds will thicken overnight with low temperatures in the upper 60s. A shower is possible by dawn, especially north and west of Baton Rouge.
For the LSU Baseball three-game series with Auburn, weather is not looking too bad. Friday does present a few questions though. Showers are projected to end during the evening hours, will they shut down in time for the game? If they do, will the field by dry enough to play? It is certainly possible the game goes on as planned, but if not, a weekend of sunshine and dry conditions will afford ample time for rescheduling.
Up Next: A cold front will come into the region on Friday with showers and thunderstorms. While an all day washout is not expected, periods of rain will be possible from dawn to dusk. At this time, the chance for severe weather is very low, but one or two storms could generate gusty wind or hail. This system may leave behind about a half inch of rain before ushering in slightly cooler and drier air for Mother’s Day weekend. Nice sunshine is expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Thermometers will climb above average on Monday and Tuesday as mostly sunny skies push readings into the upper 80s.
THE SCIENCE: A surface high pressure system will migrate eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday as the backside of the ridge moves overhead. As this occurs, southerly flow will deepen through the atmosphere allowing surface humidity to increase and some clouds to develop. On Friday, a slightly positively tilted trough will dip from the middle to lower Mississippi River Valley with an accompanying cold front at the surface. This storm system will move into an area with some mid-level moisture and instability—forecast model CAPE values appear to be near 1,000 – 1,500 j/kg. With the cold front generating uplift and some upper air divergence providing column evacuation, a shield of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop, but at this time wind shear is forecast to be very low which should minimize the threat for severe weather. Still, gusty wind and hail could materialize from the strongest updrafts and the Storm Prediciton Center has gone ahead with a "marginal risk" of severe weather, mainly north of I-10. Forecast model rain projections and the Weather Prediction Center highlight Southeast Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi in a region of 0.5 – 1.0 inches of rain. Once this cold front pushes through on Friday night, a surface high pressure system will set up in the Tennessee River Valley. slightly cooler and drier air will return in time for Mother’s Day weekend. Temperatures will be near normal over the weekend with mainly clear skies through early next week. Temperatures will moderate to about 5 degrees above average on Monday and Tuesday.
--Josh
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