A hot and humid pattern will continue for most of the week. Rain chances will be slim to nil, at least until the weekend.
Today and Tonight: The week will begin hot and humid with partly to mostly sunny skies. High temperature near 93 degrees and dew point sin the mid 70s will lead to afternoon “feels-like” temperatures near 100 degrees. Be sure to hydrate—especially if you will be doing strenuous activity outside as this is one of our first bouts of really hot weather this summer. Winds will be light and southwesterly. Overnight will be mostly clear and muggy with a low temperature near 76 degrees.
Independence Day: If you have outdoor plans for the fourth, they should be in good shape. Temperatures will again run into the low 90s with plenty of humidity so keep a pool or air conditioning and a cold beverage nearby if possible! Should a stray shower or thunderstorm develop, by the time fireworks roll around, the area will be free of any rain. The humidity will persist into the evening too, so expect to sweat while viewing the show!
Up Next: In addition to hot and humid days, clear skies and high humidity may lead to some light fog or low clouds each morning this week. As far as rain chances go, more organized shower and thunderstorm development is expected by the weekend as the upper levels become less stable.
The Tropics: In the Atlantic Basin, there is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands given a 70 percent chance of development within the next 5 days. There is no cause for concern at this time.
THE SCIENCE: An upper level ridge is in place over the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. Moisture levels throughout the atmosphere are very low for this time of year with yesterday’s weather balloon returning only 1.4 inches of precipitable water which is near the bottom 10th percentile for this time of year. The low moisture in combination with subsidence from high pressure aloft will once again suppress convection for all of the forecast area on Monday. The drier skies will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s, but at the same high dew points will keep heat index values around 100 degrees. Both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate the upper ridge will resist breaking down until later this week. Therefore, afternoon convection will be scarce until at least Thursday and even then only 20 percent coverage is forecast. Daily coverage of storms should increase more significantly going into this weekend. Models show a broad trough expanding across the southeastern CONUS and sending a boundary towards the forecast area. As a result, convection will become more robust with the approach of this front. Additionally, convective coverage increasing and 500mb heights falling slightly will likely knock temps back down a couple degrees by end of the week.